Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to experience a “mid cycle lull” before embarking on a bull run in late 2024, according to a new BTC price model developed by analyst CryptoCon. The model, known as the “November 28th Cycles Theory,” suggests that the all-time high for the BTC price will occur in 2025.
CryptoCon unveiled the chart on X (formerly Twitter), stating that November 28th is a significant pivot point in the year, along with a three-week period before and after that date. The analyst believes that by using four-year time cycles, the behavior of BTC/USD can be accurately predicted since its inception. The cycles are centered around the date of the first halving on November 28th.
The chart indicates that November 28th is the date when Bitcoin experiences a “bull run launch” every four years. The most recent bull run occurred in 2020 when BTC/USD surpassed its previous all-time high and reached its current record of $69,000 a year later.
The next significant point of interest according to the model is November 2024. Until then, the BTC price action is anticipated to go through a “mid cycle lull.” CryptoCon explains that after Bitcoin hits bottom, it goes through an early cycle move and then enters a prolonged period of stagnation around the median price, which is half of the previous all-time high. This phase continues until the curve bottoms.
Regarding the current cycle, CryptoCon believes that Bitcoin has already reached its early top, pointing to the local highs of $31,800 in July. However, opinions differ on the trajectory of BTC price action leading up to the next block subsidy halving in 2024. Some expect modest gains before the event, while others, like Filbfilb from DecenTrader, predict a target of $46,000 for the halving and $35,000 by year-end.
CryptoCon describes the behavior of the BTC price in 2023 as a “bull market fakeout” in his latest newsletter. It appears as if the bull market has started with various signals triggering, but the price ultimately fails to continue the upward trajectory. The analyst believes that there is still some time to go before this pattern completes.
As of September 8th, BTC/USD was trading at $26,200. It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice, and readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
In conclusion, according to the November 28th Cycles Theory, Bitcoin is expected to go through a mid cycle lull before starting a new bull run in late 2024. The theory is based on four-year time cycles and indicates that November 28th is a key pivot point for BTC price movements. However, opinions differ on the trajectory of Bitcoin leading up to the next block subsidy halving in 2024. Analysts continue to closely monitor the market for further insights and predictions.
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