Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as the cryptocurrency continues to trade within a stubborn range. The lackluster price action in September has set a disappointing tone for BTC, with no clear upward or downward trend emerging.
Despite this, Bitcoin faces several upcoming events that could potentially impact its price. On September 28, the United States will release its gross domestic product figures for Q2, followed by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on September 29. Additionally, the market is eagerly awaiting a speech from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, who will address the recent decision to hold U.S. interest rates at their current levels.
Inflation remains a major concern going into the fourth quarter, and Bitcoin lacks direction as it continues to trade within its range. The countdown to the monthly close is on, and market participants are eager to see if any significant price movements will occur.
Looking at BTC’s price charts, there are mixed signals. Some analysts have pointed out a “death cross” on the weekly timeframes, where the falling 21-week simple moving average has crossed under the rising 200-week counterpart. This suggests that recent price action has been relatively weak. However, other analysts remain more optimistic, noting an accumulation pattern and predicting a return to $27,000.
September 2023 has been a relatively positive month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency currently up 0.8% month-to-date. While this might seem modest compared to the usual volatility of Bitcoin, September is traditionally a bearish month that sets the stage for a more substantial upside in October. If history repeats itself, October could be a strong month for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
In fact, some analysts believe that October could be the month when the total crypto market cap breaks above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a significant bullish momentum. However, the approval of Ethereum ETF Futures and the start of “Uptober” will likely play a role in determining if this prediction comes true.
Looking ahead, there are several macroeconomic events that could impact Bitcoin and crypto markets. Revised U.S. Q2 GDP figures and comments from Fed Chair Powell, as well as other Fed speakers, will provide insight into future economic policy. PCE data will also be released, serving as a gauge for measuring inflation trends.
Before these events, markets are pricing in a 75% chance that interest rates will stay unchanged at the next decision meeting in November. However, there is also the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown over budget negotiations, which could further impact market sentiment.
In terms of BTC supply, there has been a decline in Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges, suggesting a potential supply scarcity. However, Willy Woo, a well-known analyst, argues that this decline is synthetic and does not represent a true supply shock. He believes that the approval of a Bitcoin spot price ETF in the U.S. would rectify this issue.
Despite the near-term price performance of BTC, some analysts remain bullish on the overall health of Bitcoin in 2023. They see the current levels as a last opportunity to “buy the dip” and point out similarities between the current RSI and the RSI in 2020. These analysts believe that the 200-week EMA is holding as support, indicating potential for future price increases.
It’s important to note that this article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. As always, investors and traders should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.