Bitcoin investors may need to brace themselves for a turbulent ride ahead as historical data suggests that September tends to be a challenging month for the cryptocurrency. However, two ETF analysts have highlighted mid-October as the next significant period to watch in the Bitcoin market.
Over the last 13 years, Bitcoin’s monthly returns have closed in the red at the end of September in nine instances. Crypto analyst Will Clemente, who has a substantial following of 689,000 on Twitter, mentioned that September has had the least number of positive-returning months and has consistently seen negative returns for the past six years.
Furthermore, Material Indicators, a monitoring resource, has alerted investors to the likelihood of a “full retrace” of gains made following Grayscale’s recent victory over the SEC. This suggests that Bitcoin could experience a downward trajectory in the near future.
Looking further ahead, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart advises investors to pay attention to mid-October. This period marks the second decision deadline for the SEC regarding seven spot Bitcoin ETFs from various companies such as BlackRock, Bitwise, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, VanEck, iShares, and Invesco.
Seyffart clarified that the approval chances for a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of this year are estimated at 75%. The mid-October deadlines represent the final opportunity for the SEC to make a decision on these ETFs in 2023.
It is worth noting that the delays on the recent round of spot Bitcoin ETF filings were expected. Seyffart stated that it would have been surprising if they had been approved in the initial round of deadlines the previous week.
Following the news of Grayscale’s victory, the price of Bitcoin briefly surged but has since experienced a 4.5% drop within a 24-hour period. As of now, Bitcoin is being traded at $26,066.
In conclusion, while September’s historical trends and potential retracement of gains raise concerns for Bitcoin investors, it is crucial to keep an eye on the second decision deadline in mid-October. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.