Bitcoin’s price may turn bullish in November as it follows a similar pattern to previous halving cycles, according to market observers. On October 10, analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent sideways price action is typical for the period leading up to a halving event, which occurs every four years. He highlighted that historically, November 21 has been a key point for Bitcoin’s price to begin trending upward. This was evident in 2015 and 2019 when BTC prices started to gain momentum after several months of sideways trading.
Another analyst, “Mags,” also noticed a similarity between the current price action and previous halving cycles. He compared Bitcoin’s price 200 days before the halving in 2016 and 2019, noting that both times the price was around 60% below its all-time high. Based on this observation, he suggested that Bitcoin could experience a “dump” or bottoming out period around November 10-15. Galaxy Trading also supported this hypothesis, tweeting that if the current cycle mirrors previous ones, a dump-bottom scenario could occur in November.
The Bitcoin halving is set to occur in around six months, in late April or early May. This event, which cuts the block reward in half, reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created and has historically been associated with significant price increases. As the halving approaches, Bitcoin’s price tends to stabilize or experience sideways trading until the market reacts to the reduced supply.
Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, an integrated financial services provider for digital assets, offered a different perspective. He stated that the macroeconomic environment, specifically the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, could play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price. Thielen mentioned that the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate hikes in 2019 led to a significant surge in Bitcoin prices. Therefore, he believes it is possible to see a similar price increase going into 2024.
While there may be differing opinions on the exact timing and factors influencing Bitcoin’s price, most analysts and observers agree that the next major bull market is likely to occur after the upcoming halving. The halving event is seen as a catalyst for market growth, as it reduces the supply of newly minted bitcoins and historically leads to increased scarcity, which contributes to upward price pressure.
In conclusion, based on historical patterns and observations from market analysts, Bitcoin’s price may turn bullish in November, following a period of sideways trading. The upcoming halving event, scheduled for late April or early May, is expected to be a significant catalyst for price increases in the following year. However, external factors such as macroeconomic conditions and the actions of central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, could also influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Overall, the general consensus remains optimistic about the potential for a major bull market after the halving.