Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of entering a bullish phase, according to market analyst Cole Garner. Despite the current stagnant price action, Garner believes that Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market are gearing up for significant upside movement.
One of the factors that contribute to Garner’s optimism is the activity among the largest-volume Bitcoin investors, also known as whales. Garner highlights that whale accumulation trends have historically served as the “backbone” of a bull market. He refers to findings from analytics team Jarvis Labs, which spotted a “multi-month buying frenzy” among whales. This buying spree indicates that whales are confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
But it’s not just whales who are increasing their Bitcoin exposure. Smaller investors, known as fish, are also becoming more involved in the market. Garner points out that the small investor to whale ratio is surging, which suggests that whales are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling. This behavior is in stark contrast to the previous cycle, where whales were relentless sellers. According to popular technical analyst CryptoCon, the fact that whales are not selling this time around is a significant boost for Bitcoin’s price and indicates a positive trend.
Garner emphasizes the importance of the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on Bitfinex, a major cryptocurrency exchange. This ratio has historically signaled major bull runs in Bitcoin’s history. He believes that Bitfinex’s whale traders, who are considered the “smart money” of the market, play a crucial role in driving short-to-medium term price action. Garner predicts that a breakout in Bitcoin’s price could happen in the third quarter of the year.
However, Garner acknowledges the importance of considering seasonality when predicting Bitcoin’s future. He believes that the summer season might have a temporary negative impact on the market, leading to a shakeout. However, he expects this shakeout to occur in September, suggesting that there are still several weeks of potential market gains ahead.
To challenge the bullish outlook, Garner suggests that Bitcoin would need to close below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently stands at $27,235. A weekly close below this level could invalidate the bullish trend and suggest a more bearish market sentiment.
In conclusion, Garner’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin is preparing for a significant bull run. The activity among whales and the reluctance to sell, coupled with the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on Bitfinex, suggests that the market is poised for upward movement. Although the timing of the breakout remains uncertain, Garner expects it to happen in the third quarter of the year. However, he also acknowledges the potential impact of seasonality and the need to monitor Bitcoin’s performance relative to its 200-week SMA.