Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant rally towards $34,000 in the coming weeks, according to trading platform QCP Capital. In its latest market update released on August 15, QCP analysts highlighted that the upcoming weeks mark a crucial decision point for the price action of BTC.
Given that Bitcoin has been rangebound for several months with indecisive market behavior, traders and observers are eagerly anticipating the return of a definitive market trend. QCP Capital believes that September holds the key to this anticipated trend. They explain that BTC/USD has been trading within a rising wedge pattern since its lows of $15,000, which formed during the end of the 2022 bear market.
QCP Capital’s market update indicated that this wedge pattern is set to reach its termination point at the beginning of September. The specific area of interest within this pattern is $29,300, which also aligns with the current focal point for the Bitcoin spot price. QCP Capital posed the question of whether there will be a sharp rally that takes the price to the resistance level of $34,000, similar to the preceding three instances where BTC kissed the support trendline this year.
The update further stated, “We think it could still be another quiet few weeks before we find out. We are on the lookout to buy back our end-Sep short calls and go long end-Dec vol in due time.” QCP’s perspective aligns with other optimistic projections for BTC’s short-term strength, such as one that predicts a bullish return for the Bitcoin market in October.
However, market expectations on this topic remain fragmented, with some cautioning that new lows may occur before a broader recovery takes place.
In terms of macroeconomic trends, QCP Capital acknowledged that significant change is yet to be seen, which echoes the prevailing sentiment in the crypto space. The update drew a comparison to the compressed trading environment witnessed during the crypto winter of 2018 and 2019, noting that a change in the macro environment was necessary to revive the market at that time.
Noteworthy is Bitcoin’s volatility, which has reached historic lows, as indicated by the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) data from TradingView. QCP Capital highlighted that while a game-changing shift in the macro environment is not currently in sight, several short-term catalysts are approaching, including Mt. Gox, GBTC, a potential SEC verdict on Blackrock/Fidelity’s applications, and potential news related to centralized crypto exchanges and stablecoins.
Moreover, QCP Capital referenced the September deadline for comments on the initial Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. This deadline is widely seen as a pivotal moment for the industry. It is worth noting that Europe’s first Bitcoin spot ETF recently commenced trading on August 15 on Euronext Amsterdam, with custody provided by Fidelity Investments.
It is important to mention that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading decision entails risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making any decisions.