Bitcoin (BTC) started the first full week of September with uncertainty surrounding its price action. After a relatively quiet weekend, crypto markets returned to “business as usual.” Bitcoin remained in familiar territory, but without a clear trend, traders and analysts remained undecided about its next moves. Downside BTC price predictions, such as $25,000, $24,750, and even $23,000, have become popular targets recently. On the other hand, bulls face the challenge of regaining market momentum.
The network fundamentals are expected to consolidate recent gains, and macro markets are relatively quiet. This prompts the question of whether September 2023 will be a month of single-digit losses for BTC/USD. Several factors are influencing BTC price action in the coming days.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin saw little surprises in out-of-hours trading, with modest spikes up and down indicating the presence of speculative exchange players. Failed shorts were noticed behind Bitcoin’s brief trips past $26,000. All it took was someone figuring out where stops were and market buying a few million in spot, then dumping it after forcing out some shorts.
The weekly close of around $25,970 could potentially give bulls a false sense of security, according to BTC spot market analysis. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold the $26,000 level as a failure to do so risks the formation of a double top structure for 2023. This would create a BTC price ceiling around $31,000 with potential downside ahead.
In terms of macro factors, the upcoming week holds little significant macroeconomic data, with the focus primarily on the Federal Reserve. Senior Fed officials, such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams, will offer commentary on the state of the economy. The Fed’s policy remains unclear leading up to the month’s interest rates decision on September 19.
Bitcoin mining difficulty, which reached all-time highs two weeks ago, is expected to experience a modest decline of around 2.4% in its upcoming automated readjustment on September 5. This is not unusual by historical standards, and the decrease in difficulty coincided with a decrease in Bitcoin miners’ BTC stockpile. If Bitcoin experiences another drop, it could lead to further miner stress and potential capitulation.
Behind the scenes, Bitcoin’s supply is increasingly owned by long-term holders. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows new records for BTC locked up in long-term storage. The percentage of the currently mined supply that has been dormant for three years or more is at its highest ever, as is the measure for coins stationary in wallets for at least five years.
Google Trends data indicates that Bitcoin is not a mainstream conversation topic for the average non-crypto consumer this year. Normalized search interest is back to levels seen before BTC/USD broke beyond its old 2017 all-time high of $20,000 in late 2020. However, within the crypto community, there is a prevailing sense of fear, as reflected by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
It is important to note that this article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
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