Bitcoin (BTC) has started the first week of July with a sigh of relief for traders as the $30,000 support level holds. The cryptocurrency has refused to succumb to bears after gaining 20% in Q2, with the weekly and monthly timeframes looking strong. However, in order for bulls to have a chance at breaching resistance levels that have been in place for several months, Bitcoin needs volatility triggers from elsewhere.
Opinions among market participants are divided on the potential future movement of BTC. Some believe that Bitcoin can easily achieve prices above $32,000, while others believe that this month will mark the peak of Bitcoin’s recovery in 2023.
Several factors are expected to influence BTC price performance in the coming days and weeks. Short-term price upside calls extend to $40,000, and traders are closely watching the $32,000 resistance area. Bitcoin whales have been buying dips and distributing through the range, indicating their role in maintaining the BTC price range.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic climate is expected to be calm this week as the US celebrates Independence Day. Little macroeconomic data is due, and crypto markets are expected to receive little volatility from changing inflation expectations. However, market expectations are still anchored in the possibility of interest rate hikes returning later in the month when the US Federal Reserve meets to decide on future policy.
Attention is also being paid to the US banking sector, particularly to Bank of America (BoA) and its loss-making bond purchases. The performance of regional banks, as evidenced by the KBW Regional Banking Index, has been a cause for concern. In addition, Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, may need a bailout due to bond losses. These developments highlight the vulnerability of the central banking system and the potential for a fiat crisis.
Bitcoin miners have been sending large amounts of BTC to exchanges, surpassing levels seen in April 2021 when BTC hit its previous all-time high. Despite the sales, there is little evidence to suggest that BTC miners are struggling, as the hash rate remains near all-time highs and network difficulty is only slightly below record levels.
On the positive side, Bitcoin hodlers are refusing to sell their holdings, even as prices continue to rise. The illiquid supply of BTC, which represents coins that are not readily available for sale, is currently at levels not seen since the bear market of 2022. This indicates strong hodler conviction and suggests that hodlers are confident in the long-term potential of Bitcoin.
Overall sentiment in the market is still unclear, reflecting the indecisiveness of investors. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to highlight the malleable nature of sentiment depending on Bitcoin’s price movements.
In conclusion, Bitcoin has started the first week of July on a positive note, with the $30,000 support level holding. The cryptocurrency’s price action remains resilient, and traders are cautiously optimistic about its potential upside. However, several factors, including volatility triggers and macroeconomic conditions, will continue to influence Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming days and weeks.
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