Bitcoin (BTC) managed to maintain its position above $30,000 as trading opened on Wall Street on October 23. Analysts suggested that the strength of BTC’s price could potentially negate its “bearish fractal.” The largest cryptocurrency witnessed a surge in value following the October 22 weekly close, reaching its highest levels since July and almost hitting $31,000. Rekt Capital, a well-known trader and analyst, expressed his anticipation for a breakthrough beyond the $31,000 resistance level, citing the weekly closing above the lower high resistance as confirmation of the breakout.
Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD could potentially disregard the bearish chart fractal that had been in play throughout 2023. This fractal involved a double top formation at the two year-to-date highs near $32,000, which typically indicated a downward price movement. However, Bitcoin needed to breach the $31,000 level in order to do so.
Further encouraging signs came from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, and their True Market Deviation indicator. The True Mean Market price (TMM), a key metric indicating the level at which BTC/USD spends 50% above or below, is now below its spot price, at $29,780. Checkmate, the lead analyst at Glassnode, speculated whether Bitcoin had finally paid its dues from the bear market, describing TMM as the most accurate cost basis model for Bitcoin.
The rally in Bitcoin’s price had various potential drivers, one of which was the potential approval of the first Bitcoin spot-price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Although the approval has not yet been granted, legal battles have shifted the perception of a US spot ETF to an inevitability. James Van Straten, a research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, highlighted that the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF had resulted in a significant increase in bullish inflows in the crypto market. Glassnode data showed a spike in inflows through over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks since late September. The Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which holds approximately 25,000 Bitcoin, has observed consistent inflows over the past month, indicating a positive market sentiment.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the largest institutional investment vehicle for Bitcoin, continues to see a lower discount to the Bitcoin spot price. It reached its smallest negative margin since December 2021, standing at -13.12% as of October 23. This suggests an increasing demand for Bitcoin among institutional investors.
In summary, Bitcoin’s price held above $30,000 at the start of trading on Wall Street as analysts explored the potential for BTC to overcome its bearish fractal and build on its recent gains. The possibility of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval in the United States and increased institutional inflows into Bitcoin further fueled optimism in the market. However, readers should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.