Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a period of silence, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), he highlighted that Bitcoin’s velocity has declined to its lowest level in three years. This could be interpreted in two ways: either as a positive sign that whales are holding onto their positions, or as a negative indication that the transfer of Bitcoin to new investors is not occurring.
This range-bound action has left many investors uncertain about the next trending move for Bitcoin. However, there was positive commentary from JPMorgan analysts, who suggested that Bitcoin’s downtrend may be coming to an end. They pointed to the declining open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as evidence that the long liquidation phase may be over.
While Bitcoin determines its next move, certain altcoins are showing signs of strength. However, these altcoins could turn negative if Bitcoin’s range resolves to the downside. On the other hand, if Bitcoin turns upwards or remains within its range, these altcoins may present a short-term trading opportunity.
Let’s take a closer look at the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that may experience upward movement in the near term, and identify the levels that need to be surpassed for the bulls to gain control.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
On August 26, Bitcoin formed an inside-day candlestick pattern, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers regarding the next directional move. The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($27,222) and the oversold relative strength index (RSI) suggest that bears are currently in control. However, the bulls are expected to defend the $24,800 level with all their might. If buyers manage to thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, it could lead to a rally towards the 50-day simple moving average ($28,888). On the other hand, if bears push the price below $24,800, the pair could enter a downtrend towards $20,000.
On a 4-hour chart, the 20-day exponential moving average is flattening out, while the RSI is near the midpoint. This indicates a balance between supply and demand. If the price falls below $25,700, it could decline to $25,166 and then to $24,800. However, if the pair sustains above the moving averages, it will signal that the bulls have absorbed the selling pressure. The first minor resistance level lies at $26,314, and if this is surpassed, the pair might climb to $26,610 and later to $26,833.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis:
Toncoin is currently forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which will complete upon a break and close above $1.53. The gradually upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($1.38) and the positive RSI indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers manage to push the price above $1.53, the TON/USDT pair could embark on a new uptrend towards the pattern target of $1.91. However, the bears will likely attempt to defend the $1.53 level and push the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could decline to $1.25 and eventually to $1.15.
On a 4-hour chart, the $1.53 level may prove to be a stiff barrier for buyers to overcome. If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average, it would suggest that the bulls are buying on minor dips. This could improve the odds of a break above $1.53, with the pair potentially rallying to $1.70. However, if the price breaks below the moving averages, it would indicate that traders are booking profits near $1.53. The pair may then drop to the 50-simple moving average, and subsequently to $1.33.
Monero (XMR) Price Analysis:
Monero has experienced a sharp rebound off the uptrend line for the second time in recent days, indicating strong defense by the bulls. It could now reach the 20-day exponential moving average ($148), which is expected to act as a significant hurdle. If bulls do not give up much ground from this level, the chances of a rally above the 20-day EMA increase. The pair may then climb to the 50-day simple moving average ($157), which could attract selling pressure from bears. However, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it would suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then retest the uptrend line, and if this support level gives way, the pair may collapse to $125 and later to $115.
On a 4-hour chart, the bulls have pushed the price above the moving averages, indicating a potential weakening of the bears’ grip. There is strong resistance at $150, but if this level is breached, the pair may reach $160. The rising 20-day exponential moving average and the positive RSI indicate a minor advantage for buyers. However, the first sign of weakness would be a break and close below the moving averages, potentially pulling the price to the uptrend line and even further down to $125.
Mantle (MNT) Price Analysis:
Mantle has been in a strong downtrend since peaking at $0.60 on July 20. However, the oversold RSI suggests that a relief rally may be possible. The outside-day candlestick pattern on August 25 indicates that buyers are attempting to take control. The MNT/USDT pair could first rise to the 20-day exponential moving average ($0.45), a crucial level to monitor. If buyers surpass this obstacle, the pair may rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.48. On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it could signal that bears continue to sell on every minor rally. This could result in a retest of the support at $0.41. If this level breaks, the pair may slide to $0.35.
On a 4-hour chart, the bulls have managed to push the price above the moving averages but are struggling to start a significant rally. This indicates that the bears have not given up and may pose a challenge at higher levels. If the price breaks below the moving averages, it would signal an advantage for bears and increase the likelihood of a break below $0.41. However, if the price sustains above the 20-day exponential moving average, it would indicate that the bulls are buying minor dips. The pair may then attempt a rally to $0.47 and subsequently to $0.52.
Quant (QNT) Price Analysis:
Quant rebounded off strong support at $95 on August 17 and rose above the moving averages on August 26. This suggests strong demand at higher levels. The bulls will aim to sustain the momentum and push the price to the downtrend line, where a tough battle between bulls and bears is expected. If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average ($101), it would signal a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. This could increase the likelihood of a rally above the downtrend line, with the QNT/USDT pair potentially reaching $120. However, this positive view may be invalidated if the price falls below the moving averages, potentially sliding to the support at $95.
On a 4-hour chart, the moving averages have turned upwards, and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating a comeback by bulls. The pair may rally towards the downtrend line, where bears may mount a strong resistance. On the downside, the moving averages are expected to act as strong supports, with a break below the 50-simple moving average suggesting the recovery may be over, potentially sending the pair tumbling to $98.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
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