Bloomberg analysts have increased the likelihood of an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, following Grayscale’s recent victory against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, announced on Twitter that they have raised the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval to 75% from the previous 65%. This adjustment is due to the unanimous and decisive ruling by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit in the recent Grayscale case. Balchunas added that the SEC will find it difficult to justify further denials as it faces impending deadlines.
In a separate note, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein also expressed their confidence in a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. They highlighted the judges’ repudiation of the SEC’s arguments as a significant factor in their revised probability. According to Seyffart, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals are likely to be a “done deal” by the fourth quarter of 2024, with the approval odds now standing at 95%.
Balchunas emphasized that a denial of the spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC would be “politically untenable” in light of the recent legal and public relations loss. The case gained widespread media coverage, including prominent outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and ABC. Balchunas believes that the combined legal and PR consequences will put significant pressure on the SEC to approve the ETF.
CoinTelegraph reports that the SEC is currently facing a crucial decision as seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” determination within the next five days. These applications are from prominent firms such as Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie. Balchunas speculated that the SEC might delay these upcoming applications. However, he also stated that it would not be surprising if the SEC unexpectedly gives in and approves all the Bitcoin spot ETFs at once.
The possibility of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval has generated considerable interest and excitement in the cryptocurrency market. A spot Bitcoin ETF would provide a convenient and regulated avenue for traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. It could potentially attract significant institutional and retail investments, further legitimizing and boosting the adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class.
The crypto community eagerly awaits the SEC’s decisions on the pending Bitcoin spot ETF applications. The outcome of these decisions will have a significant impact on the future of Bitcoin investment products and the broader cryptocurrency market.