Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a tight range above $30,000, showing little sign of a breakout in either direction. Traders are becoming frustrated as the cryptocurrency fails to establish a clear trend. Bitcoin has been stuck between support and resistance levels for weeks, with neither bulls nor bears able to gain the upper hand. This lack of movement has become a recurring pattern, and even significant events like macroeconomic data releases and institutional involvement have failed to break the cycle.
The coming week offers little in terms of data-driven catalysts from the United States or the Federal Reserve. However, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be in a re-accumulation phase, with investors waiting for a significant move in the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects a neutral sentiment among crypto market participants, although it is currently at its lowest point for July.
Bitcoin’s weekly candle close showed limited volatility, with the $30,000 support level remaining untested. The cryptocurrency continues to trade within a narrow range, which traders have become all too familiar with. Some traders believe that Bitcoin may see new local lows if bulls fail to break the range soon. Downside targets of around $28,300 and $27,400 have been suggested by analysts. The ongoing battle on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) also indicates a struggle between buyers and sellers.
In terms of macro events, the highlight of the week comes in the form of tech firm earnings and jobless claims on July 20. However, with a Fed decision on interest rate hikes still a couple of weeks away, significant volatility may not be expected yet. Markets remain convinced that the Fed will resume rate hikes, with a 96.1% probability of a 0.25% hike. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to reclaim the 100 mark, which could have an impact on Bitcoin’s price.
On-chain data suggests a reawakening of Bitcoin whales, with large tranches of coins being accumulated this year. This indicates a potential bullish signal, as whales historically increase their holdings in a bull market. The BTC supply dynamics also show that a significant amount of supply has moved near $30,000, indicating a critical level of interest among investors. Additionally, older, long-dormant supply is coming back to life, which has been a characteristic of early stages of previous bull markets.
The sentiment in the crypto market, as reflected by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, is currently neutral but at its lowest point for July. This index shows how market sentiment changes rapidly, even within established trading ranges. Extreme levels of fear or greed often precede market rebounds or retracements.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s lack of movement continues to frustrate traders as it remains stuck within a tight range. The coming week offers few data-driven catalysts, but on-chain data and supply dynamics suggest that a significant market move may be on the horizon. Traders will be closely watching support and resistance levels for any signs of a breakout.