Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week, still trapped within one of its narrowest-ever price ranges. With the price hovering just below $30,000, Bitcoin has frustrated traders over the past week. However, there is speculation that a breakout may be on the horizon.
Despite some beliefs that Bitcoin is due for a decline, data suggests that buying pressure is returning at current levels. Additionally, there is a potential long-term bull flag formation that could confirm on the monthly close, giving some hope to Bitcoin bulls.
As the focus shifts to other potential price triggers for cryptocurrencies, let’s take a look at the major topics that could move the markets in the coming days and beyond.
Bitcoin’s price range has remained stubbornly sticky, with no significant movement even in the face of the US interest rate hike and macroeconomic data. The trading range has been between $29,000 and $29,500. The monthly close will be a crucial event to watch, as it could potentially shift the price range. At present, BTC/USD is expected to close the month with losses of around 3.5%.
The market is anticipating potential volatility as we move through the monthly close. Traders are paying attention to the BTC/USD order book on major exchange Binance, which clearly shows the current trading range. It is worth noting that historically, July has been a green month for Bitcoin, except for losses in 2019.
Traders predict that this week could be slow, but expect more action in the following week. There is a growing sentiment that a bullish crossover is imminent on the monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, which has traditionally preceded prolonged price increases for Bitcoin. The monthly close is expected to lock in this bullish crossover, creating optimism among traders.
On daily timeframes, both the MACD and relative strength index (RSI) are in a peculiar position due to the lack of momentum, indicating that a move is forthcoming. In the past, similar MACD crosses on weekly timeframes have led to significant price increases for Bitcoin.
While macroeconomic data is expected to be relatively calm this week, important US jobs data will be released, which could impact market sentiment. Around one quarter of S&P 500 companies will also be reporting earnings, further influencing market movements. The US dollar is expected to weaken further, benefiting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Stablecoin investors have been accumulating stablecoins into the monthly close, anticipating volatility. Key whale and shark stablecoin wallets have been observed to be loading up on stablecoins during Bitcoin’s visit below $30,000. This accumulation is seen as a precursor to an upside move in Bitcoin’s price.
Whale wallet numbers, which represent large-volume investors, have hit a four-month low. The net exposure of these investors has declined significantly since the end of May. However, wallets with smaller balances, such as 0.01 BTC or more, have reached all-time highs. This suggests that retail investors are still actively participating in the market.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price remains stuck within a narrow range, frustrating traders. The focus now shifts to the monthly close and the potential for a breakout. Data suggests that buying pressure is returning and a long-term bull flag formation could provide support for Bitcoin bulls. The upcoming week will see important US jobs data and earnings reports from S&P 500 companies, which could impact market sentiment. Stablecoin accumulation and changes in whale wallet numbers add further intrigue to Bitcoin’s price outlook.
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