As the Christmas season approaches once again, the market is showing promising signs for another run. Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new heights, surpassing $35,000 in October, marking another record high for 2023. The year-long rally can be attributed to unconventional market trends, such as the anticipation surrounding Bitcoin spot ETF applications pending with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
For those of us who have been involved in the crypto space since 2014, the holiday season brings a sense of excitement and euphoria, especially this year. Many believe that a bull run is just around the corner, making it an opportune time to keep a close eye on the market and explore unique trading opportunities in various niches.
Traditionally, Christmas rallies in the crypto scene have brought joy and anticipation. Historically, December sees an increase in trade volumes, significant market movements, and price surges. However, recent years have proven to be different, with market dynamics being influenced by unforeseen factors. The global pandemic in 2020 and Elon Musk’s tweets in 2021 and 2022 are just a few examples of how cryptocurrencies have experienced exponential growth due to unpredictable reasons.
Predicting the behavior of the crypto market is comparable to forecasting the weather – a challenging feat. While previous years have brought December delights, this season is influenced by more complex factors, including regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions.
Apart from the excitement surrounding ETFs, another significant event on the horizon is Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, scheduled to occur in April 2024. This event is crucial as it is tied to Bitcoin’s finite supply of 21 million coins. With Bitcoin primarily issued through mining, the halving is a mechanism that reduces the number of new Bitcoins created in each block by 50% every 210,000 blocks or approximately every four years. This ensures that Bitcoin remains a scarce and highly sought-after asset.
Various market influencers and experts have made bold predictions about Bitcoin’s price in light of the upcoming halving. Robert Kiyosaki, the author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” believes it will reach at least $100,000, while Max Keiser forecasts a new all-time high of $220,000. Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, envisions a price of $1 million. These predictions are based on both historical trends and social influences, which played a significant role in the rally witnessed in October.
However, what happens if the ETF applications are not approved by the SEC? Analysts at JPMorgan suggest that it could result in legal action by the applicants. Nonetheless, there is a possibility that multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs could be approved within the next few months, making it seem inevitable, if not imminent.
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts around the world have the potential to impact the crypto market. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East serves as a reminder of how external factors can ripple into the market. While the immediate implications may not be clear, historically, investors seek refuge in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, during global crises. As the situation unfolds, there could be shifts in sentiment and capital flow within the market.
The recent Middle East conflict had some impact on the crypto market. Oil prices surged while crypto prices fell, driven by speculation that the war may disrupt oil supplies if it spreads to neighboring nations like Iran. This further heightens concerns of economic peril if the situation escalates to areas that host the world’s busiest shipping routes, such as the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and the Suez Canal, which account for a significant portion of global trade.
Traders are eagerly anticipating the possibility of an “altcoin” season coinciding with the festive season. Historical data shows that previous alt-seasons occurred in December 2017 and January 2021, suggesting that this trend may continue this year. The anticipation is that the next alt-season will begin in December, aided by Bitcoin ETF approvals, and last until Bitcoin’s halving in April. This presents a potential opportunity for altcoins with valuable use cases in niche sectors such as GameFi and tokenized real-world assets to shine.
The Christmas season holds the promise of a crypto bull run, but the road ahead remains uncertain. The fate of ETF approvals, global tensions, and the potential for altcoin dominance all require careful attention. While the future cannot be accurately predicted, staying informed, managing risks, and seizing strategic opportunities are essential in navigating the ever-exciting world of crypto finance.
Evan Luthra, a 28-year-old cryptocurrency entrepreneur with a successful track record, shares these insights. He sold his first company, StudySocial, for $1.7 million at the age of 17 and has since developed over 30 mobile apps. Luthra has been involved in cryptocurrencies since 2014 and is currently building CasaNFT. He has also invested in more than 400 crypto projects.
It is important to note that this article is for general information purposes only and should not be considered as legal or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.