Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) may not be in their “longest ever bear market” and may not even be in a bear market at all, according to some industry observers. MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin is currently experiencing its longest bear market, lasting for 490 days and down over 50% from its peak in November 2021. However, there are differing interpretations of the term “bear market” in the crypto industry.
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan explained that the terms “bull” and “bear market” are subjective and can refer to either past price movements or expected future price movements. This ambiguity allows for endless debates among analysts. According to Cointelegraph’s market editor Allen Scott, one perspective is that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since reaching its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021, lasting for 659 days. However, this is still not the longest bear market based on this interpretation.
In the past, Bitcoin has experienced bear markets that lasted even longer. For example, between November 2013 and January 2017, Bitcoin’s price remained below its previous highs for 37 months or approximately 1,125 days. During this period, Bitcoin failed to reclaim $1,000 after reaching that price mark in 2013. Another example is the period from December 2017 to December 2020, where Bitcoin lagged behind the $20,000 price level for 1,095 days, although it can be argued that Bitcoin was on its way to hitting its all-time peak of $68,000 during that time.
Another interpretation of a bear market suggests that Bitcoin may not currently be in a bear market at all. Classic definitions define a bear market as a decline of 20% or more from an asset’s recent high. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin is currently around 13% below its most recent high in mid-July 2023. Additionally, Bitcoin has seen a 34% increase in value over the past year. Some argue that when considering the long-term trajectory and overall performance, Bitcoin has been in a continuous bull market since 2019.
Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow sees the current market situation as “very bullish” due to factors such as high inflation, loss of purchasing power, increasing debt, and adoption by nation-states like El Salvador. Mow also has his own definition of a bear market, referring to it as what high time preference crypto investors periodically experience. Greenspan supports this view, noting that Bitcoin has never actually been in a bear market and will always be in a bull market when considering the longest time frame.
In conclusion, while there are varying interpretations of bear markets in the crypto industry, it is clear that Bitcoin has experienced longer bear markets in the past. The current market situation is open to debate, with some arguing that Bitcoin is still in a bear market while others view it as a continuous bull market. Ultimately, the perception of the market depends on the timeframe and individual perspective.
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