Grayscale Investments, the company that has been pushing for the conversion of its Bitcoin (BTC) trust into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), could be receiving a decision on its lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) very soon. According to a tweet by Scott Johnsson, a general partner of Van Buren Capital, it is common for judges in the United States District Courts to clear out their caseload before new law clerks arrive in August.
Johnsson highlighted that in March of 2021 and 2022, 30 out of 32 cases were heard by the United States District Courts within 160 days of oral testimony, which happened to fall in August. Notably, it has now been 160 days since Grayscale delivered its oral arguments in its lawsuit against the SEC on March 7. Therefore, there is a possibility that a decision on the case could be reached before the end of August.
Additionally, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that the decision in the Grayscale lawsuit could come as early as August 15. Although Seyffart did not conduct a detailed analysis like Johnsson, he believes it is a plausible timeline. Johnsson also agreed with Seyffart’s prediction, calling it a “pretty decently good bet.”
The lawsuit stems from the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF in June 2022. Grayscale argues that the SEC acted arbitrarily by failing to provide consistent treatment to similar investment vehicles. Industry commentators, including Cathie Wood from ARK Invest and ETF analyst Nate Geraci, have expressed confidence in Grayscale’s chances of winning the lawsuit.
Grayscale recently made a statement urging the SEC to approve all Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously to ensure fairness among applicants. They believe that approving all applications at once would prevent any single firm from gaining an unfair advantage over others.
If Grayscale wins the lawsuit, it could pave the way for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Geraci even expressed a near 100% certainty that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved if Grayscale emerges victorious in the lawsuit.
As of now, there are only a few remaining unresolved cases from March that were argued in court. Therefore, the decision in the Grayscale lawsuit could be imminent, and investors and observers alike are eagerly awaiting the outcome.