Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a price dip in the coming months before potentially reaching $35,000 by the end of 2023, according to veteran analyst Filbfilb. In an interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader shared his insights on BTC’s price targets and the current market conditions.
Filbfilb acknowledges that Bitcoin is facing several obstacles in its current uptrend. The ongoing Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) debacle, along with the unique macroeconomic environment, presents challenges that differ from previous cycles. However, Filbfilb remains optimistic that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will have a positive effect on BTC’s price performance. He predicts that Bitcoin could potentially trade as high as $46,000 by the time of the halving.
When asked about the short-term floor for Bitcoin’s price, Filbfilb suggests that the lows of around $16,000 seen after the FTX crash are likely to be maintained, unless a black swan event occurs. He also notes that the long-term floor could be somewhere in the low $20,000 range.
Filbfilb expects a reversal in price behavior in the fourth quarter of this year, as miners and smart money “buy the rumor” on the halving. Based on previous cycles, he believes that there will be a contraction of new emitted supply to the market, coupled with increased speculative demand.
Regarding the correlation between Bitcoin’s price and hash rate, Filbfilb states that he has not been able to attribute a direct relationship between the two. He emphasizes the importance of considering directional price momentum and market positioning, such as long/short ratios, funding rates, and open interest, when tracking BTC’s price.
Filbfilb also comments on the recent Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit and its significance. He believes that the SEC’s policy of delay and unreasonable rejection is unlikely to prevail in the long run. With major institutional asset managers, including BlackRock, filing for ETFs, Filbfilb anticipates that a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF will eventually be approved.
Discussing the impact of U.S. inflation on Bitcoin post-halving, Filbfilb highlights that high inflation and increased capital costs can diminish retail investors’ disposable income and make riskier investments, such as Bitcoin, less attractive. He suggests that the longer inflation and rates remain high, the less capital will flow into assets like Bitcoin.
When asked about altcoins, Filbfilb expresses his focus on Bitcoin but mentions two standout contenders. He expects XRP to perform well due to its legal case with the SEC and its potential for market share growth. He also does not rule out the possibility of Dogecoin experiencing another significant rise, especially if Elon Musk integrates cryptocurrency into his ventures.
In summary, Filbfilb remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s price, predicting a potential dip in the short term before a possible rally to $35,000 by the end of 2023. He emphasizes the impact of the upcoming halving and the importance of considering market dynamics such as inflation and institutional adoption when assessing Bitcoin’s long-term performance.