Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach a price of nearly $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle, according to Pantera Capital. In their recent “Blockchain Letter,” released on August 22, the crypto asset manager reiterated its bullish BTC price forecast for 2024 and beyond.
Pantera Capital argues that Bitcoin’s price performance heavily depends on its halving cycles, and with the next one due within the next twelve months, the firm believes that historical trends will continue. The firm notes that BTC/USD tends to reach a cycle bottom and top approximately equal lengths of time from each block subsidy halving, where the number of Bitcoin paid to miners per block decreases by 50%.
Based on historical data, Pantera Capital states, “Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward.” They further add that the post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days from the halving to the peak of the next bull cycle. Applying this theory, the firm suggests that the 2022 bear market bottom marked the current Bitcoin price cycle bottom and asserts that the BTC price should have reached its low point on December 30, 2022.
Looking ahead, Pantera Capital predicts that by the halving date in April 2024, BTC/USD could be trading at around $35,000, which it believes is still achievable. However, the firm emphasizes that the 480 days following the halving will not only result in a new all-time high but much more. They point out that the 2016 halving had only a one-third reduction in supply compared to the first halving, and it had exactly one-third the price impact. Similarly, the 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving, which resulted in a 23% decrease in price impact. Pantera Capital predicts that if history repeats itself, the next halving in 2024 will see Bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.
According to this projection, Bitcoin is scheduled to hit its next all-time high by July 2025, 480 days from the April 2024 halving. Pantera Capital’s forecast aligns with other optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s future price. The “Lowest Price Forward” metric suggests that BTC/USD could surpass $100,000 by 2026. Additionally, some analysts believe that $100,000 is possible for Bitcoin, but not until after next year’s halving.
It’s important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any decisions involving investment and trading, as every move carries risks.
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