The United States Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to make a decision on the pending Bitcoin (BTC) exchange traded fund (ETF) applications within the next eight days. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas believe that the SEC has a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings, including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product, by November 17, 2023. However, they emphasize that this is only a possibility.
Seyffart revealed that the SEC issued delay orders for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie simultaneously. He noted that if the SEC wants to allow all 12 filers to launch, as he believes, this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.
This brief window is due to the fact that when the SEC extended the deadline for a number of the pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, it selected November 8 as the last day of the comment period. From November 17, the comment period for 3 filings, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF, would recommence, meaning that they wouldn’t be approved or denied until after November 23 at the earliest.
Although the window for accepting all 12 filings ends on November 17, Seyffart added that the SEC could technically make a decision on nine of the twelve applications anytime before January 10.
While it is not guaranteed, both Seyffart and Balchunas predict a 90% chance of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF sometime before January 10 next year.
In the meantime, Grayscale is reportedly in discussions with the SEC about converting its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. According to sources familiar with the matter, Grayscale has been in contact with both the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance since winning its court battle with the regulator on August 29.
As the perceived odds of a Bitcoin ETF being approved have increased, so too has optimism in the crypto market, with the price of Bitcoin gaining more than 30% in the last 3 months. Bitcoin’s rally has also positively impacted the price activity in other major assets such as Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Ether (ETH).
While many within the industry are confident that an approval will kickstart the next bull market, other analysts aren’t convinced that the rally has staying power.
Overall, the pending approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF seems to have stirred up enthusiasm and optimism in the crypto market, with hopes for a positive outcome that could potentially affect the entire market. Only time will tell whether the SEC will approve all 12 filings in the coming days.