Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally has seemed to hit a roadblock near the $36,000 mark, prompting discussions about whether it is time to book profits. However, according to analysis from Glassnode, the Long-Term Holder metric, which tracks addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, has shown that supply is near an all-time high. In contrast, the Short-Term Holder metric, which monitors addresses holding coins for less than 155 days, indicates that supply is near an all-time low. This suggests that there is a tightening supply of Bitcoin, a positive sign for the long-term outlook.
Despite the positive long-term outlook, there are concerns about potential short-term movements in the Bitcoin market. Data from CoinGlass indicates that the open interest in Bitcoin derivatives markets has reached over $16 billion, raising the prospect of increased volatility. J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, highlighted on social media that similar increases in open interest above $12.2 billion have previously led to a minimum dip of 20%.
While Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory remains uncertain, traders have started accumulating select altcoins, resulting in robust rallies in several altcoins which have broken out of long basing patterns. These altcoins are showing signs of starting a new uptrend, suggesting that the broader cryptocurrency market may remain in focus as long as Bitcoin does not significantly decline below the $30,000 mark.
Amidst these uncertainties, it is important to consider the support levels that need to hold for the Bitcoin uptrend to continue, as well as the sustainability of the altcoin rally.
Bitcoin’s price has been trading inside a narrow ascending channel, indicating a cautious approach from buyers. The 20-day exponential moving average and the relative strength index (RSI) point towards an upward bias. However, the potential for a rally to $40,000 may face strong selling pressure from bears. On the other hand, a turn down and violation of the 20-day EMA could signal a profit booking phase, leading to a drop to $31,000.
Ether is slowly inching higher towards the significant resistance at $2,000. If the ETH/USDT pair holds above $2,000, it may indicate that bulls are holding their positions, laying the groundwork for another leg higher. A failure to hold above this level could lead to a pullback to around $1,746.
BNB has been in a recovery phase, with the price reaching $256 before facing resistance from bears. A pullback to the 20-day EMA may indicate traders view dips as buying opportunities, while a drop below the EMA could increase bearish pressure.
XRP surged above $0.67 but faces resistance at $0.74. As long as it remains above $0.63, a retest of $0.74 is possible, but a break below $0.63 could weaken bullish momentum.
Solana appears to be consolidating in an uptrend, with potential to reach $48, but a sustained drop below the 20-day EMA could lead to a deep correction.
Cardano has shown a strong uptrend, but a sustained failure to hold above $0.38 could lead to a near-term negative outlook.
Dogecoin is currently testing $0.08 resistance, with a break above signaling a potential surge to $0.10.
The above analysis illustrates the key levels and trends for the top cryptocurrencies, providing insight into potential upsides and downsides. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the focus remains on Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory and the sustainablilty of altcoin rallies.