Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to remain rangebound until at least the fourth quarter of 2023, according to prominent market participant Filbfilb. In a recent Twitter thread, the well-known analyst and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader stated that investors should anticipate flat BTC price action for the remainder of the year.
Despite its impressive 70% gains in the first quarter, Bitcoin may be disappointing bullish investors. However, Filbfilb believes that the current price action of BTC during this halving cycle is not significantly different from previous cycles. He pointed out that Bitcoin historically consolidates during the 1,200-day period after a halving event.
Filbfilb supported his prediction with various comparative charts, explaining that miners are incentivized to drive up prices before the halving. He emphasized that miners are collectively motivated to ensure that prices are well above the marginal cost to maximize their revenue before it is halved. Additionally, he highlighted the influence of smart money interested in “buying the rumor” surrounding the halving, which has historically boosted the market.
Based on his analysis, Filbfilb projected that miners would start bidding prices higher into the Bitcoin halving, which should occur around 1,276 days after previous halvings. Therefore, he suggested that a potential deadline for this behavior could be early November 2023. Filbfilb predicted that the fourth quarter would be a critical period for Bitcoin, during which supply would be constricted and new money driven by speculation would enter the market.
However, the road to Q4 might not be without challenges for Bitcoin. One major factor that could impact its performance is the macroeconomic policy of the United States. The upcoming September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will decide benchmark interest rates, is of particular interest to risk asset bulls. Filbfilb described the macro aspect as the “elephant in the room,” stressing its potential influence on Bitcoin’s price movement.
Filbfilb reiterated that if the macro environment remains stable, Bitcoin could convincingly break the $30,000 mark before the end of 2023. However, if a more bearish scenario unfolds and Bitcoin returns to $20,000, the current local high of $31,800 may remain as resistance. He concluded that breaking that resistance level would come later in such a scenario.
This analysis aligns with other analysts who are also considering the time between halvings in their Bitcoin price predictions. For instance, asset manager Pantera Capital recently set a target of $35,000 for the next halving and $148,000 for after the 2024 event. Meanwhile, another prediction stated that $100,000 would not be reached before the next halving.
In conclusion, Filbfilb anticipates a rangebound Bitcoin market until Q4 2023, with the potential for supply constraints and new money driven by speculation in the later months. However, the macroeconomic policies of the United States pose a significant risk factor that could influence Bitcoin’s performance. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.