Russian crude shipments have reached an eight-week high, despite the impact of sanctions and production cuts, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The data showed that there was an average increase of 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russian crude shipments in the week leading up to August 27, totaling 3.4 million bpd. This figure represents the highest weekly shipments in the past eight weeks.
The data also revealed that the less volatile four-week average numbers increased by 40,000 bpd. Shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those without a final destination specified, rose to 2.57 million bpd during the reporting period, compared to 2.53 million bpd in the previous period up until August 20. It should be noted that most of the cargoes on ships without an initial destination eventually end up in India.
In contrast, Russian seaborne crude exports to EU countries only amounted to 125,000 bpd in the 28 days leading up to August 27, with Bulgaria being the sole destination. No Russian crude was shipped to northern European countries during this four-week period. The data also showed that exports to Russia’s remaining Mediterranean customer, Türkiye, stood at about 156,000 bpd during this period.
Despite the increase in shipments, Bloomberg highlighted that these figures support the notion that Moscow is adhering to its commitment to keep supply off the global market, in line with its allies in the OPEC+ producer coalition. This commitment was reiterated by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak, who stated earlier this month that Moscow would extend its export cut into September. Novak also mentioned that the size of Russia’s supply cut would be reduced to 300,000 barrels a day from 500,000 barrels a day in August.
Russia’s effort to diversify its energy supplies is a response to Western sanctions, particularly after the EU stopped accepting the country’s oil transported by sea. In February, Russia voluntarily pledged to reduce oil production by 500,000 bpd starting from March. This move was in retaliation to the sanctions, and Moscow also stopped sales to buyers who complied with a Western-imposed price ceiling of $60 a barrel.
In conclusion, despite the impact of sanctions and production cuts, Russian crude shipments have reached an eight-week high, with shipments to Asian customers showing the most notable increase. The data suggests that Russia is honoring its commitment to keep supply off the global market, in line with its allies in the OPEC+ producer coalition. Russia’s efforts to diversify energy supplies are a response to Western sanctions, and the country has taken steps to reduce oil production and halt sales to buyers who comply with a Western-imposed price ceiling.
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