The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time, signaling further tightening as inflation remains high and the risk of a recession looms in the Eurozone. This latest rate increase of a quarter percentage point brings the ECB’s main rate to 3.75%, the highest level since 2000. The main refinancing rate has been set at 4.25%.
The central bank has expressed concerns that inflation will remain too high for an extended period. In a statement, the bank said, “Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. Future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target.”
Although consumer price growth in the Eurozone has halved since its peak in October 2022, economists expect further rate hikes. The headline consumer price growth declined to 5.5% in June from 6.1% in May, but it is still significantly above the ECB’s target of 2%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde has stated that the central bank remains open-minded about future decisions regarding interest rates. While the bank may hike or hold rates steady in September, cutting rates is not on the table.
The Eurozone has been facing stubborn price growth, and recent business activity data released for Germany and France have indicated declines. Analysts at ING Germany believe these figures increase the chances of a recession in the single currency area this year.
The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates reflects its commitment to tackling stubborn inflation and ensuring price stability. Despite concerns about the potential impact on economic growth, the central bank believes that maintaining restrictive interest rates is necessary to bring inflation back to its target level.
With inflation expected to remain high for an extended period, the ECB’s decisions on interest rates will play a crucial role in shaping the Eurozone’s economic trajectory. The central bank’s focus on achieving its medium-term inflation target underscores its determination to maintain price stability in the region.
Overall, the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates aligns with its objective of addressing inflationary pressures and instilling confidence in the economy. The central bank is aware of the risks associated with further rate hikes but believes that the benefits outweigh the potential costs. The Eurozone will be closely watching the ECB’s future decisions and their impact on inflation and economic growth.
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