Russia is expected to significantly increase its oil exports in November, according to analysts cited by business daily Kommersant. The country’s seaborne shipments are projected to surge by around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to October, reaching up to 3.7 million bpd – the highest levels since May. This spike in exports is primarily attributed to ongoing maintenance works at several Russian refineries, which have forced companies to redirect oil for export purposes.
However, analysts note that most of the repairs at these refineries are expected to be completed by November 15, leading to a potential drop in oil exports from December onward. This indicates that the increased exports in November are temporary and are primarily driven by the need to compensate for reduced domestic refinery capacity.
Another contributing factor to the surge in Russian oil exports is the recent increase in global crude prices. Moscow has been forced to redirect oil shipments to Asian markets due to Western sanctions and a price cap on Russia’s crude. Additionally, Russia has gradually reduced its oil output to support global prices, which were previously around $72 per barrel. However, crude prices have since recovered due to reduced supplies from Saudi Arabia and the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The global benchmark Brent is currently trading at approximately $88 per barrel.
Furthermore, the seasonal drop in domestic fuel demand and Russia’s current restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports also create favorable conditions for redirecting crude oil for export. With lower demand for fuel locally and limited export options for refined products, it becomes more economically viable to focus on exporting crude oil instead.
Looking ahead, it is expected that Russia’s oil exports may slightly decrease in the coming months as refinery maintenance works are completed. This indicates a temporary increase in November, which is driven by the need to compensate for reduced domestic refinery capacity and take advantage of higher global crude prices. However, it is important to note that the country’s overall oil export levels will still be influenced by a range of factors such as global demand, geopolitical dynamics, and market conditions.
In summary, Russia is set to sharply increase its oil exports in November due to maintenance works at refineries and higher global crude prices. It is expected that the surge in exports will be temporary, with a potential drop in exports from December onward as refinery maintenance is completed. The increase in oil exports highlights the need to compensate for reduced domestic refinery capacity and take advantage of favorable market conditions.