Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to be in a “heightened emotional state” following the failed mutiny by the mercenary Wagner Group, according to Russia expert Tatiana Stanovaya. The rebellion, led by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, involved troops marching towards Moscow before retreating to avoid bloodshed. While the mutiny was ultimately a failure, it is considered the most overt challenge Putin has faced, and it has weakened him.
In response to the mutiny, Putin has appeared to be engaging in damage control. He made his first public appearance on Wednesday night, participating in a rare walkabout in Dagestan. During this outing, he took selfies, shook hands, and even kissed a member of the public, which is unusual for the germaphobic president. Stanovaya suggests that Putin’s handlers wanted to create an atmosphere of support for the embattled leader, emphasizing the love he receives from the people and elites.
However, Stanovaya believes that Putin’s emotional state makes him more susceptible to manipulation, and his entourage is taking advantage of this. She argues that there is a shift in Putin’s regime, with his advisors becoming more actively involved in shaping its trajectory. This is particularly significant as Putin seems to be losing initiative in dealing with domestic issues.
This recent phase can be contrasted with the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when Putin became extremely isolated. During that time, he relied on a small circle of aides who fed him false information that appealed to his prejudices. This isolation, coupled with his emotional state, possibly contributed to his vulnerability to manipulation.
The failed Wagner mutiny has not only weakened Putin but has also exposed the internal divisions and power struggles within Russia. The Wagner Group, known as a “private army” with links to the Kremlin, operates in murky territory, often undertaking sensitive missions with plausible deniability. Its mutiny suggests that there may be discontent and dissent within the ranks.
This event also raises questions about Putin’s authority and control over various factions within Russia. The fact that the mutiny occurred and gained some traction before being swiftly turned around emphasizes the challenges Putin faces in maintaining order and loyalty within his own ranks.
Furthermore, the mutiny has international implications. It highlights the potential for instability within Russia, which could have consequences for neighboring countries and global security. As the situation in Ukraine remains volatile, any signs of weakness or internal divisions in Russia could embolden actors with opposing interests.
In conclusion, the failed mutiny by the Wagner Group has had significant consequences for Putin and his regime. His emotional state has made him vulnerable to manipulation, and his entourage is gaining more power and influence. The mutiny has exposed internal divisions within Russia and raises questions about Putin’s authority and control. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen how these developments will impact both domestic and international affairs.
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