According to the latest review issued by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russia is expected to export 48 million tons of wheat in the current agricultural year, which spans from July 2022 to June 2023. This figure represents a 500,000-ton increase from the USDA’s previous forecast in July. Initially, analysts had projected Russia’s wheat exports to be around 47.5 million tons, but the new forecast reflects an additional million tons.
It’s worth noting that Russia’s wheat-production outlook remains unchanged at 85 million tons. However, there has been a reduction in the projection for carry-over stocks, from 12.44 million tons to 11.44 million tons. This adjustment indicates that there will be slightly less wheat available for future export.
In terms of competition, the European Union (EU) is Russia’s closest competitor in the wheat-export market. The USDA’s forecast for the EU’s wheat exports remains unchanged at 38.5 million tons, indicating that Russia is expected to outpace the EU in terms of export volume.
Moving beyond wheat, the USDA report also provides insight into Russia’s forage crop and corn harvest. The export outlook for Russia’s forage crop has not changed, but the production forecast has been downgraded to 39.4 million tons from the initial projection of 42.25 million tons in July.
The forecast for Russia’s corn harvest has also been reduced from 16.3 million tons to 14.6 million tons. However, the estimated export volumes of corn remain unchanged at 4.2 million tons. These adjustments suggest potential challenges in meeting domestic demand for corn.
It is important to note that the USDA’s projections do not include data from the Crimean Peninsula or territories such as the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Additionally, the forecast does not cover the Kherson or Zaporozhye regions, all of which are former Ukrainian territories that voted in referendums to join or rejoin Russia.
Looking ahead, the Russian agricultural ministry expects the country’s farmers to harvest approximately 123 million tons of grain during the current agricultural season. This includes an estimated 78 million tons of wheat. These projections underline the significance of Russia’s agricultural sector and its position as a major player in the global grain market.
In summary, the USDA’s latest review indicates an increase in Russia’s wheat-export forecast for the current agricultural year. However, adjustments have been made to the projections for forage crop and corn production. These figures highlight the potential challenges and opportunities for Russia’s agricultural industry in the coming months.
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