China’s President Xi Jinping reportedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to The Financial Times. This revelation highlights the growing influence that Xi holds over Putin, particularly as Russia faces increasing isolation over the conflict in Ukraine.
During their meeting in Moscow in March, Putin and Xi publicly toasted to their nations’ strong alliance and shared opposition to US global power. However, behind closed doors, there were significant differences between the two leaders. Chinese and Western diplomatic officials cited by The Financial Times revealed that Xi personally cautioned Putin against following through on his threats of a nuclear strike against Ukraine.
This intervention by Xi sets a clear limit to the extent of his support for Putin and suggests that there are certain actions that Xi is not willing to back. If true, this cautionary warning shows a shift in the relationship dynamics between the two leaders, highlighting Xi’s increasing influence and power in the East.
For several months, Putin had been escalating his rhetoric towards Ukraine and its Western allies, even making veiled threats of a nuclear attack. However, Xi’s stance indicates that the use of nuclear weapons is a red line for him in supporting Putin. It’s clear that Xi is using his newfound influence in Moscow to discourage any potentially catastrophic escalation of the conflict.
While China has been one of the few major powers to support Putin over the Ukraine invasion, Xi’s support has been crucial in providing economic and diplomatic assistance to Russia amid international isolation and sanctions. This support gives Xi leverage over Putin and allows him to deter the Russian president from taking drastic actions.
Xi’s position on Ukraine is a delicate balancing act. On one hand, he wants a Russian victory in Ukraine to humiliate the US. On the other hand, he doesn’t want to alienate European countries, whom China remains economically dependent on. A Russian use of nuclear weapons would severely undermine China’s efforts to stabilize relations with the European Union.
Furthermore, such an escalation would also increase the likelihood of a Russian battlefield defeat, which China hopes to avoid. It could prompt NATO to provide advanced weaponry to Ukraine, leading to strikes against Russian forces. This outcome would be embarrassing for Xi, who has publicly opposed using nuclear weapons in the war and seemingly cautioned Putin against taking such a step.
It’s crucial to note that Putin’s grip on power in Russia is being increasingly challenged. The recent mutiny staged by mercenaries from the Wagner group against Russian military leaders has likely unsettled Beijing. Ukraine is also taking advantage of the chaos, intensifying its offensive to push Russian forces back from the occupied territory.
Analysts have speculated that Putin might escalate the conflict if there is a serious chance of defeat in Ukraine, and the use of tactical nuclear weapons could be one of his options. Putin has previously defied China, as evidenced by his declaration to position nuclear weapons in Belarus, seemingly as a snub to Xi.
If further setbacks occur for Putin, Xi may find himself in the difficult position of trying to persuade the Russian leader to avoid nuclear escalation. China’s strategy is likely to deepen its relationship with Russia while demonstrating to the West that it can prevent Moscow from entering a far more dangerous and unpredictable stage of the war.
In conclusion, Xi Jinping’s warning to Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine highlights the shifting dynamics between the two leaders and Xi’s growing influence over Putin. This intervention sets a clear limit to Xi’s support for Putin and indicates that there are actions he is not willing to endorse. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, China’s balancing act between supporting Russia and maintaining relations with the West will be a crucial aspect to watch.
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