As the Conflict Intensifies, the Western World Faces a Choice: Israel or Ukraine – Patricia Marins
By Counter Intelligence Global
“If Hezbollah were to engage the IDF forces with its entire arsenal, which includes rockets ranging from 100mm to 620mm with a range of over 150km, modern anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), and numerous Iranian drones, it is likely that Israel would demand significant support in terms of weaponry.
Still their strongest advantage would be the presence of thousands of militants with military experience from Syria and Yemen. This poses a significant challenge for the Israeli army, which primarily consists of professionals without real combat experience and a high number of conscripts, what push Israel to demand the use of a substantial amount of long-range weapons and ammunition.
In recent days, the US has started sending weapons to the IDF. However, the capacity of the US and Western countries, in general, is limited due to the significant deliveries being made to Ukraine.
The issue here is not solely about shells; the Russian invasion has caused a global rush to source materials for various defense industries worldwide. This includes chemicals for explosives, metals, and plastics needed for fuses and artillery shell casings.
If the Israeli conflict intensifies, there could potentially be a shortage of 20mm-40mm ammunition, which theroduced in Western countries has a rate of around 30-40 million rounds per year. This might not be enough considering the high rate of fire of these calibers in an intense conflict.
Furthermore, if Iran decides to maintain a high rate of weapons supply to Hezbollah, the situation could worsen.
Since the 90s, the Israeli industry has greatly downsized, from 140,000 employees to the current workforce of 30,000-40,000.
For example, Elbit Systems, produces only a few tens of thousands of artillery shells annually.
If the Israeli conflict truly escalates, the Western world may come to a point where it has to choose between supplying Israel or Ukraine. The reality is that the Westersn cannot sustain both conflicts simultaneously, so diplomatic solutions must be sought for one of them.
But the situation isn’t any better for the Russians. Israel may indeed seek assistance from Russia, particularly due to the significant influence of Soviet immigrants in the establishment of the Israeli defense industry, where they still keep ties to both governments.
In fact, this situation will highlight the importance of defense suppliers from countries that do not have immediate conflicts, such as Turkey, India, Brazil, and South Africa.”
