Deutsche Bank (DB) has dealt a significant blow to Germany’s economic outlook, reducing its 2024 GDP forecast by a substantial 0.5 percentage points to -0.2%. The revision follows a budget crisis triggered by a Constitutional Court hearing, pointing to low growth exacerbated by challenges within the German legal system.
DB’s explanation for the downward adjustment seems to extend beyond purely economic factors, taking on a political undertone. The bank suggests that shifting blame onto the courts might be an attempt to outsmart the “Schuldenbremse” or debt brake – a fiscal rule in Germany’s constitution aimed at preventing excessive government debt.
This development hints at a broader structural dilemma within Europe, driven by prolonged debt accumulation and extensive money printing. The backdrop includes financing an energy transition that may not have been thoroughly planned. The consequences have rippled through the economy, impacting both asset and consumer prices.
As Europe finds itself in this economic quagmire, it faces limited and unappealing options for extrication. The challenges underscore the complexities of navigating the aftermath of decades of fiscal policies, shedding light on the urgent need for strategic economic solutions.
OUCH! DB cuts German 2024 GDP forecast by a whopping 0.5ppts to -0.2% due to the budget crisis following the Constitutional Court hearing. pic.twitter.com/m0HsrZHbRb
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 27, 2023