Ukraine’s aspirations to produce nuclear weapons on its own are unlikely to be realized, according to Aleksey Danilov, the head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. In a recent interview on national TV, Danilov acknowledged that the political and technological challenges facing Ukraine would make it highly improbable for them to regain their nuclear status, which they lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Danilov described the stockpile of intercontinental ballistic missiles that Ukraine used to possess as a “complicated thing,” emphasizing the difficulties involved in the production and maintenance of nuclear weapons. While he acknowledged that there have been cases where non-nuclear powers have been provided with nuclear weapons by NATO allies, he admitted that he couldn’t say for certain whether this would work in Ukraine’s case.
These comments by Danilov differ from those made by Aleksey Arestovich, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who suggested in June that Ukraine could quickly develop its own atomic arsenal and obtain the necessary fissile material. However, Danilov’s remarks align more with the reality of the situation, given the complex political and technological factors involved in nuclear weapons production.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a significant portion of the country’s nuclear warheads and the corresponding infrastructure. However, in 1994, Ukraine voluntarily gave up these weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the US, Britain, and Russia under the Budapest Memorandum. This agreement aimed to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
However, in recent years, Russian officials have argued that Western interference in Ukraine’s domestic affairs has undermined the Budapest Memorandum and the security guarantees it provided. The annexation of Crimea in 2014, following a Western-backed coup in Kiev, further complicated the situation.
In early 2022, before the start of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, President Zelensky hinted at the possibility of reclaiming Ukraine’s nuclear status, citing the loss of Crimea to Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Ukraine was in talks to acquire nuclear weapons prior to the conflict, while former Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev has stated that Ukraine’s threats to restart its nuclear program were among the main factors that prompted Russia’s military operation.
Overall, while Ukraine may express aspirations to regain its nuclear status, the political and technological challenges it faces make it unlikely for the country to produce nuclear weapons on its own. The complexities involved, both in terms of international politics and the technological expertise required, present significant barriers for Ukraine’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, any potential for Ukraine to host a Western-made atomic arsenal would depend on various political factors and the cooperation of NATO allies.
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