Bakhmut Offensive: Bigger & More Aggressive Pincer Developing ard Bakhmut City | Updated Analysis
By Defense Politics Asia
Update from Bakhmut Front: With the developing situation and realities on the ground, particularly on the breakthrough west of Blahodatne and fighting reported near Chasiv Yar, west of Ivanivske – the Russian forces (or Wagner PMC) might be targeting a bigger pincer movement that we had previously anticipated.
If Ukrainian lines breaks at Orikhovo-Vasylivka / Dubovo-Vasylivka, the entire NW retreat routes through the farmlands in the event of the loss of the final safe route out of Bakhmut City via Khromove will be threatened.
And if the Russians indeed advancing from the west of Ivanivske all the way to the east of Chasiv Yar to control that final road – this could very well spell a massive operational encirclement if a huge amount of troops that is currently holding the lines in Bakhmut City and towns north of it.
Here’s what others had to say:
Pandora
RIP to all Russians, Ukrainians,someone brother,sister, boyfriend or girlfriend father or mother died on both sides of fighting. May you all rest in peace.
Off
Maybe it’s just the way all of these battles evolve but the way they poach a weak spot and rupture outward is giving me Soviet vs Army group north vibes
Paddy Hart
Excellent analysis, Wyatt. This pointless war needs to end ASAP.
Ron i
It’s worth mentioning the weather has highs of around freezing all week, which mens most of the time will be below. Men out of entrenchments also are exposed and many will get sick, hypothermia, exhausted etc.
edmond27355
Wow,! Excellent, clear, easy to follow account of Russia’s SMO. Map shows exactly what is happening for both sides. Love the commentary.
donald duck
Must be about time for Denys D to cheer himself up by telling us about the latest plan to recapture Crimea.
Wardenwarden warden
“Russian don’t want to follow your tactics and do everything in their own way” Lol
Raiden7284677
At this rate, there’s no point in the UA protecting Bakhmut. Their supply lines and even routes to retreat are threatened. Time is of essence if they don’t want to be left with facing either annihilation while running away or surrender.
jumbeaux1
I noticed that we are getting less and less early news about the fighting (at least on Twitter). Could it be that the Russians do not want the speed of their advancement to be known.
Yashvardhan Ojha
Reminds me of Operation Uranus , no one expected Soviets to attempt such a big Encirclement.
Alex
Maybe a few days or weeks will decide Bakhmut fate. Even so, ukrainians still can get out in small individual groups. A complete encirclement would be literally Stalingrad 2. Over 30k ukrainian troops are inside Bakhmut (more than entire Zaporizhia front), some being special forces, and the other ones being experienced fighters. If russians manage to destroy those troops, then Stalingrad 2 will happen. Such a loss would have huge impact on logistics, morale and loss of soldiers. Hard to make up of over 30k humans, with good equipment to hold up the front. Probably units from other fronts would be moved in, which will cause weaker spots in the front line in other places. Or more innocent ukrainian men being sent to become victims. Anyway, russians with high morale are hard to be stopped.
My grandfather’s brothers fought in Stalingrad. They said russians were supreme animals, being able to adapt to every single tactic or environment they face. Even himars or javelin, now they are not having the same impact as they had when they were first used.
SockTier
Konstantinivka and chasiv yar after bakhmut then it’s just villages and fields that separate towards kramatorsk and sloviansk. Bakhmut alone has nato mercenaries, cossacks, anti Russian chechens, other foreign fighters, the most elite Ukrainian troops left and a huge number of Ukrainian mobilized troops. It is imperative for the Russians to not let them escape, taking them all out in bakhmut will make capturing chasiv yar and konstantinivka much easier.
mrtriffid
Seems it’s rather pointless to speculate about what the Russians have ‘decided to do,’ or what they are planning to do on a micro-level, because they are being very opportunistic in their attack. At last, it seems they intend to destroy a significant part of the Ukrainian forces, but they are doing this according to the rapid exploitation of weak points that develop along a very long front of continuous engagement. Consequently, the Russian particulars of the offensive depends on which segments of the Ukrainian line are weakest at any particular point in time.
The HTURT
If this is really happening, this could be a major disaster for the Ukrainian Army ,much bigger then Mariupol was
SA
It makes more sense now for Russians to go straight to capturing Chasiv Yar. Less manpower and less fortified. Bakhmut will fall under it’s own weight.
