Can Vladimir Putin Lose the Russian War Against Ukraine?
This is a very naive and myopic answer. For starters, the Russian economy is capable of going domestic for almost all primary commodities. Secondly, China and many other countries of the world have NOT sanctioned Russia, so they still have economic options. Thirdly, the EU literally CANNOT just cease using Russian energy sources. Fourthly, the Russian leadership actually WANTED Western corporations out of Russia, so sanctions achieved this, in fact, accelerated it. Fifthly, the ability of the people to influence the leadership in Russia is nothing like the US/EU, they are screwed so long as the state has the ability to successfully oppress them — physically and mentally.
I really think all the people claiming victory for the West are completely biased by their own cultural influences, you just don’t get how Putin thinks or how things work in a totalitarian regime.
Sanctions may actually bring the West to its knees, because energy resources literally dictate the success or failure of an economy… I don’t think we’ve even begun to see or understand the implications of this global reshuffling of relations.
Can Vladimir Putin lose the Russian war against Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin has already lost the game.
He will probably win this war in Ukraine by taking control of the country and installing a regime on his payroll. However, the American and European economic sanctions will bring the Russian economy to its knees.
Putin will not be able to make people forget what he is doing in Ukraine and the country will remain outlawed from the international monetary and financial system as long as he is in charge.
Will the oligarchs accept this situation in the long run? Will the Russian people accept to pay a high price for Putin’s war which they do not want?
I don’t think so. Sooner or later he will be overthrown. It seems impossible today, but without money and with the people against him, Putin will have a hard time lasting.
He will have Ukraine, but the guerrilla warfare that will be waged against the Russian occupier will be reminiscent of what Afghanistan was for the USSR: the beginning of the end.