Neil Ferguson and Andrew Pollard Sharing a Taxi…?
For the attention of:
Professor Neil Ferguson
Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
Imperial College London
Professor Ferguson, did you share a taxi with Andrew Pollard in mid-January 2020?
As you know, Professor Pollard is the current chief investigator on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine trials, and Chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), which “advises UK health departments on immunisation”, i.e. advises UK health departments on vaccine products for the taxpayer-funded schedule.
Professor Ferguson, according to a BBC report last December “In the middle of January  Prof Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, which runs clinical trials, shared a taxi with a modeller who worked for the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. During the journey, the scientist told him data suggested there was going to be a pandemic not unlike the 1918 flu”. (The BBC report omitted to note that Professor Andrew Pollard was Chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation at the time.)
The BBC article reports Professor Pollard said: “I went from someone who was aware of a small outbreak in China, which was of academic interest, to realising that it was going to change our lives. It was a chilling moment.”
Professor Ferguson, ‘the modeller’ who alarmed Andrew Pollard about the data suggesting “there was going to be a pandemic not unlike the 1918 flu” sounds very much like it could be you, is this correct? (Or another member of your Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium?)
That’s what you said in your Imperial College Report 9, Professor Ferguson, published in March 2020, i.e. “The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic”.
This is a very alarming statement, as the US CDC reports the H1N1 virus spread around the world in 1918-1919, resulting in estimated deaths of at least 50 million. This was in a global population of around 1.8 billion at the time.
If the CDC’s estimate of H1N1 deaths in 1918-1919 is accurate – with a 2020 global population of 7.8 billion – it’s equivalent to 216 million deaths in two years, i.e. the insinuation from your Imperial College Report 9 is that COVID-19 could potentially amount to 216 million deaths in the world in the same time period.
Professor Ferguson, while you inferred COVID-19 represented a public health threat in the same league as the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic, a few days after your report was published, Public Health England reported: “As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) in the UK”.
According to Public Health England (PHE): “The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.” (My emphasis.)
It was also noted that “The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID”. (See attached HCID webpage which was last updated 17 June 2020, to compare with the HCID webpage accessible online today: High consequence infectious diseases (HCID). Last updated 12 May 2021.)
Subsequent PHE HCID reports don’t even mention SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.
This is extremely confusing Professor Ferguson.
Your Imperial College Report 9 insinuated the world could be facing approximately 216 million deaths as a consequence of COVID-19, and that an aggressive suppression strategy would “need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed”.
Despite the fact COVID-19 was downgraded from a high consequence infectious disease on 19 March 2020, and it was known it had low overall mortality, the mainstream media has maintained very alarming reporting for the past 17 months re the number of ‘cases’ and deaths attributed to COVID-19.
Professor Ferguson, according to Statista, around 4.25 million deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 globally in say the past 17 months, likely mostly in elderly people with comorbidities, this is well below the potentially 216 million deaths inferred by you with your comparison with the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.
The 4.25 million global deaths figure over 17 months attributed to COVID-19 must also be seen in the context of deaths expected in the global population of 7.9 billion during that time, i.e. around 83.9 million deaths over 17 months.
Professor Ferguson, clearly something isn’t adding up here…can you please clarify the situation?
How did you come up with data that suggested COVID-19 was on a par with the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and thereby unleash a grossly disproportionate response to COVID-19?
And also please clarify if you are indeed the modeller who travelled in a taxi with Professor Andrew Pollard in mid-January 2020? (Or another member of your Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium?)
I would appreciate your response on these matters.
Independent person investigating the over-use of vaccine products and conflicts of interest in vaccination policy