Ukraine – Military Summary And Analysis 2023.03.02
By Military Summary
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I could see this situation coming for Kherson miles away. It was a very smart idea from the russians to fix their position on the other side of the river, simply because Russia has a massive advantage on artillery warfare and Ukraine can only sit there on the other side of the river taking non stop heavy fire. Russia is gradually destroying the ukrainian army on Kherson using artillery. The ukrainians are in a terrible position having to chose to retreat to save its army from the shelling and abandoning Kherson or stay there and hold Kherson taking very heavy casualties.
I concur that the Russian military is leaving a small gap into/out of Bakhmut as a killing ground just as the western allies did at Falaise during WW II. The idea being to destroy as many of the enemy as possible as they attempt to squeeze through the gap.
Excellent analysis and perspective of the situation as usual. Many thanks.
Thank you Dima!! Of course, A has a plan and B has another plan for this situation, but the real problem is not these plans. The problem is who are A and B in reality. Everything we see now is the result of extremely detailed calculations by certain A and certain B. We can say anything about any of these parties involved, but we know nothing about what agreements are made beyond the picture we see. What mattered the most, for us, who don’t make any of these A and B plans, is that this conflict must stop. Returning to Transnistria what can be said? A territory that belongs to another country, Moldova, with an autonomy won and with the definite help of the Ukrainians during the internal war from Chisinau. Moscow has so far refused to recognize the independence of this region, as is natural, unlike in Luhansk and Donetsk. What does Kiev want now? Ammunition from those warehouses from Transnistria? May be! Is this region a real danger for Ukrainians? Definitely not ! The opinion of many is that the political regime from Kiev only wants to involve other countries in this conflict, in the hope that the Russian pressure will disperse on the shoulders of others. But here is a flaw.. Moldova does not represent any threat to Russia, it is a negligible amount in this ratio of forces. Then the only option left is for Moldova to be helped by Romania, a NATO country, but which does not matter militarily. And from here the endless discussions about the activation of art 5 from the NATO treaty will appear again. They didn’t succeed with the Poles when they were shouting out of their mouths for NATO to attack, now let’s hope that Romania will make a smart move that does not mean the beginning of the end. On the other hand, there are enormous territorial problems between Ukraine and Romania, left unresolved after the collapse of the USSR. There would be a lot to discuss about the front as well, especially about Kherson and Bahkmut… but another time. Finally, a small detail regarding the alleged hunting of the Ukrainian president by the Russians, in the event of a change the scope of this military operation. Today, the Poles (Poles again) they published a video from Biden’s surprise visit to Kiev… The biggest surprise was that behind Bid*en, inside the presidential palace, were two … Zele*nski !!! Almost identical, dressed the same, of the same height, who were walking with Bid*en. Funny and interesting approach.. The Russians will have some difficulties with this !! Equally interesting is the question why Polish television did not process the video material ? Which plan does it belong to: from A or from B!!!
God bless the Russian and non russian men and woman fighting and giving there lives to defeat Fascism.
Cerita Sebelum Tidur
The Ukrainian had just started their “greatest counter offensive” in Kherson.
It just Russia repulsed all those attacks and pretend like nothing happen.
This will frustate the Ukrainian who thirst for media affirmation and also will confuse the western countries to know if Ukraine really did carry out the orders to start the offensive.
These 3 recent months, Ukraine commandos were actively attempt to cross the river and secretly piling up munitions on Russian side Kherson.
The plan didn’t work too well as we all know the Russiam swept the area and found those munition piles.
Today, under heavy pressure from the west to start an offensive operation, the Ukrainian started the operation with crippled supply stocks at the frontline.
They all got destroyed and Russia keep their mouth shut tight.
…nothing interesting happen in Kherson aside of regular artillery duel.
Changing from SMO to anti terror allows full mobilization , it also allows the Draft , Very big change according to Russian Law , Less restrictions as far more options under the Law for the Russian Military.
It’s like holding a royal flush of spades or all 4 aces in your poker hand and watching your opponent bet more and more money.
Yesterday an analyst, colonel retired of the US military, has information that at this time the Ukraine army has lost 250,000 dead and 300,000 wounded. They are requesting US, UK, CAD DR etc to send their foot-soldiers to help. That will not happen.
If Russia has a million supporters, I am one of them. if Russia has 10 supporters, I am one of them. If Russia has one supporter, I am it. If Russia has no supporters, I am dead.
My take on the Kherson area is that Russia, with the help of China, now has better satellite monitoring of any concentrations of troops and equipment.
So, basically, Bakhmut is the same strategy that the Germans tried in Verdun and the French tried at Dian Bian Fu, but for the Russians it worked.
Both armies say nothing for the moment about an encerclement because there is also a battle underground, in the tunnels, which has to be won first.
An attack on Transnistria will not help Ukraine and will not be a walk in the park.
The military of Transnistria is nearly as strong as Moldova’s military and they have more heavy equipment available.
I don’t expect Moldova to get directly involved and even doubt that they will agree with a Ukrainian invasion of what they still consider as Moldovan territory.
There is a lot of resistance among the Moldovan population against the support of their government for Ukraine and even directly against NATO.
I seriously doubt that the Moldovan government will take the risk to get involved in a direct confrontation with Russia.
Even if they launch an offensive on Transnistria, Ukraine will most probably not get its hands on the ammunition dump because the Russians will destroy anything which is still functional if their position becomes untenable.
If they can wire the warehouses with explosives which can be detonated by remote control, they may even wait until the Ukrainians start loading the ammunition.
Considered the amount of ammo stored in these warehouses, the explosion will be huge, Larry Johnson compared it with Hiroshima without the nuclear fall-out.
Not only destroying the ammunition, but anything within a radius of several miles, including the Ukrainian troops and their means of transportation.
In the end Ukraine will be left with empty hands and an additional front for which they do not have the manpower and equipment to defend it properly.