What is Happening Near Kupyansk: Analysis of the Military Chronicle?
By Military Summary
What is happening near Kupyansk: analysis of the military chronicle?
The situation in this direction for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is rapidly becoming more complicated. There are few response options, and none of them is good or even acceptable for the Ukrainian army.
What is happening in the Kupyansk direction?
During the offensive, units of the RF Armed Forces came close to Sinkovka, one of the last settlements before Kupyansk in the Kharkov region. Kupyansk, to which the Russian army is only 7 km away, as well as the objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine around it, is located in the zone of destruction of Russian artillery.
At the same time, the RF Armed Forces advanced towards Kamenka and Dvurechnaya in the north-east of the Kharkiv region, which forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stretch their forces and decompress the defense in these directions. For the past four weeks, all the border facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – headquarters of companies and battalions, warehouses with fuel and ammunition – have been actively worked out by Russian aviation. The FAB-250-M62 and UPAB-1500 bombs were used from a range of 50 km, due to which the Aspide short-range air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Soviet Strela did not have time to react and were destroyed along with key objects of the Ukrainian army. After several weeks of air strikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kupyansky district, almost all units of the Ukrainian army began to experience a shortage of ammunition.
What units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are located near Kupyansk?
At least ten large formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were left for the defense of the Kupyansky district: the 10th and 36th separate rifle battalions, the 5th separate battalion, the 3rd separate tank brigade, the 14th separate motorized brigade, the 103rd and 105th brigades TRO, 92nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, 132nd ODSHB, 27th OREA Brigade. At the same time, the largest forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are thrown into the defense of the Sinkovsky ledge, the defense of which, to put it mildly, is complicated by some features of the relief. Sinkovka and Kupyansk are often compared to Artyomovsk because of their geographical location.
What is the importance of the Kupyansky district for the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
Both settlements are located in a lowland and surrounded by hills, which complicates their defense and simplifies the assault using artillery. Another problematic point in the Kupyansky district for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the so-called eastern corner – the place where the villages of Kotlyarovka and Kislovka are located.
A railway line passes through them, leading directly to Kupyansk-nodal, the central logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (not counting Chuguev and Kharkiv) in the Kharkiv direction, linking three regions of Ukraine.
To the south of Kupyansk-nodal, in addition to small towns, is Slavyansk, the supply of which may be disrupted if Kupyansk is abandoned by Ukrainian troops.
In addition to the loss of control over the railway communication, the abandonment of Kupyansk by the Armed Forces of Ukraine may open the way for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to Shevchenkovo and Chuguev along the H-26 highway.
The distance from Kupyansk to Chuguev by road is 80 km, the direct distance is less than 65 km, which, if Kupyansk is lost by the Ukrainian army, automatically means that it will be possible to work out Chuguev with long-range rocket artillery and planning bombs FAB-250-M62.
Will the Armed Forces of Ukraine be able to keep Kupyansk?
The main forces of the Ukrainian army are involved in the attack on Zaporozhye and in the South-Donetsk direction. An attempt to keep the RF Armed Forces near Kupyansk with the help of operational reserves has so far failed.
Most likely, in order to create an effective defense along the borders of the Kupyansky district, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need to attract strategic reserves. It is possible, although unlikely, that in order to stop or at least slow down the offensive of the RF Armed Forces in this area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will remove some units from other sectors of the front. Both options with the involvement of strategic reserves or front-line units run into a lack of ammunition and the inability to suppress or at least disrupt the work of Russian aviation, which uses bombs and guided missiles from a distance of 40-50 km.
In addition, the use of Geran-2 UAVs and Iskander ballistic missiles against especially important facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area does not stop, which further complicates the defense of the Kupyansky region and each time requires the involvement of ever larger forces.
