What is the Military Meaning of the Attack on the Crimean Bridge: Analysis of the Military Chronicle
By Military Summary
What is the military meaning of the attack on the Crimean Bridge: analysis of the military chronicle.
On the morning of July 17, the Armed Forces of Ukraine sent several unmanned jet skis filled with explosives under the Crimean bridge. As a result of the explosion, the span of the automobile bridge was partially damaged, and people were killed.
What is the meaning of such an attack?
As in the case of the strike on the bridge on October 8, 2022, the attack on the infrastructure facility is purely terrorist in nature. For a long time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not admit their involvement in the terrorist attack committed last year, but later the responsibility of the Ukrainian special services for this terrorist attack was confirmed. The railway and road parts of the bridge were soon restored, and traffic on them was launched as usual.
How does the Crimean Bridge affect the supply of NWO?
Last time, representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that they blew up a truck filled with explosives on the bridge to “disrupt logistics.” From the point of view of supplying units of the RF Armed Forces in the NVO zone, the Crimean Bridge has not played a key role for a long time – almost all supply is carried out along the land corridor through the Taganrog-Mariupol line, so any delay in the movement of trains or trucks across the bridge either does not affect the supply at all or has a minimal effect.
What happened after the bridge attack last October?
After last year’s terrorist attack, there were quite concrete military and social consequences for Ukraine. A series of missile strikes, which followed a few days after the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, deprived the country of a significant part of the electric power facilities, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine paid for the strike on the Crimean bridge with a dozen objects, on which Ukrainian military personnel, military equipment and hundreds of regular officers were located, the number of which can be restored with a simple dial mobilization is not possible. In addition, the strike on the Crimean bridge had absolutely no effect on the situation on the battlefield. The October terrorist attack was committed at the height of the battle for Artyomovsk, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine were still driven out of the city and suffered enormous losses.
What could be the answer now?
It is important to understand that after the October attack on the Crimean bridge, a number of important conclusions were drawn regarding the proportionality of the response to such attacks. There was no instant mirror response, but there was an asymmetric and thoughtful military response.
However, this time, there may be changes. Which? First, strikes with Caliber and Kh-101 cruise missiles have not been launched recently, which means that the total stock of such missiles could be increased to a serious level.
Secondly, the production of Geran-2 strike drones has reached the industrial level. Taking into account the fact that strikes with such ammunition are inflicted non-stop almost every day, it can be argued that the stocks of these weapons are several dozen times higher than at the beginning and middle of the NMD, which makes it possible to inflict much larger strikes on military and energy facilities.
In addition, the RF Armed Forces already have experience in destroying key weapons – the Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems, and also have experience in delivering local strikes, for example, on the GUR building in Kiev, which expands the window of opportunity to hit targets.
The experience of past strikes has shown that it is not worth waiting for an immediate massive strike. However, when it is prepared, the strike will have the most serious consequences for Ukraine.
