October 3, 2023 8:41 pm

2025 prediction: Radical changes threaten the future of NATO, warns academic.

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The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in the next presidential election could have severe consequences for US military aid to Ukraine and the NATO pact, according to academic Phillips Payson O’Brien. In an article published in The Atlantic, O’Brien argues that three-quarters of the Republican Party’s electorate, who are supporters of Trump, oppose arming Ukraine. Trump himself has repeatedly stated that he would use military aid as leverage to compel Ukraine to engage in peace talks with Russia. Other potential GOP candidates, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, have also expressed intentions to restrict support for Kiev. Ramaswamy has even suggested recognizing Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine in exchange for Moscow distancing itself from Beijing.

In O’Brien’s view, the election of Trump or his supporters could lead to a complete halt of US support for Ukraine, which would leave Europe responsible for supporting Ukraine financially and militarily. However, O’Brien highlights that European nations would be unable to fill the gap left by US military aid, potentially resulting in a military defeat for Ukraine. Furthermore, differing opinions within Europe would also complicate the situation, with Eastern and Baltic nations wanting to assist Ukraine but lacking the means to do so, while Western countries such as France and Germany would be more inclined to seek peace with Russia. O’Brien warns that this scenario could lead to a deterioration of European cooperation at best, and a permanent fracture at worst.

To prepare for this possibility, O’Brien urges European countries to increase their military production immediately. However, this recommendation may be challenging to fulfill as the Eurozone entered a recession in the first quarter of 2023 and Germany experienced a decline in industrial production.

O’Brien’s predictions are based on the assumption that Ukraine will still be able to fight until 2025. According to Russian sources, Ukraine has already suffered significant casualties in its ongoing counteroffensive, failing to penetrate the Russian trenches and fortifications along the Kherson-Donetsk front line. Prior to the offensive, Western media reports suggested that continued US and NATO military aid to Ukraine was contingent on the success of the operation. However, the counteroffensive has now been widely regarded as a failure, three months into the operation.

The implications of a potential Trump presidency or the election of his supporters are deeply concerning for Ukraine and Europe. It raises questions about the future of US support for Ukraine, the stability of the NATO pact, and the potential fracture of European cooperation. With tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalating, it is crucial for European nations to consider alternative strategies and ensure their ability to support Ukraine in the face of changing circumstances.

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Original Source: 2025 prediction: Radical changes threaten the future of NATO, warns academic.

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