European officials are reportedly concerned that US President Joe Biden could push Ukraine towards peace talks in 2024, according to anonymous sources cited by Bloomberg. This comes as American military aid to Kiev is at risk of drying up, with Ukraine’s lack of significant battlefield progress and pressure from the anti-interventionist wing of the Republican Party being the main reasons behind this concern.
Since Russia’s military operation began last year, the US has provided Ukraine with more than $43 billion worth of arms. However, the Biden administration has run out of funds for further aid packages and has requested a $40 billion emergency spending bill from Congress, half of which would be allocated to Kiev. Nevertheless, this bill is likely to face opposition from an increasing number of Republicans who are against Biden’s unrestricted policy.
Furthermore, earlier this summer, reports suggested that continued military aid to Ukraine would be contingent on Kiev making significant territorial gains against Russian forces using its NATO weapons and training. However, after nearly three months of Kiev’s counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military has failed to breach Russia’s defensive lines and has suffered significant casualties, with more than 43,000 men lost, according to recent figures from the Russian Defense Ministry.
With Ukraine’s chances of success diminishing, Biden will also be campaigning for reelection in 2024, potentially against former President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly vowed to impose a peace deal on Ukraine if reelected, and Vivek Ramaswamy, currently polling third for the GOP’s nomination, has made similar promises.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that American officials believe Ukraine will not receive the same level of military aid in 2024 compared to this year. The US will be unable to provide Kiev with the same amount of weapons and ammunition, and American military planners are advising their Ukrainian counterparts to use their existing resources more effectively.
Publicly, the Biden administration maintains its commitment to continue providing weapons to Ukraine. Axios reported on Wednesday that senior US officials have reassured European leaders of the ongoing aid, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated on Tuesday that key Republicans still support arming Kiev for as long as necessary.
However, the concerns raised by European officials and the potential interruption of arms flow to Kiev due to domestic politics highlight the uncertain future of US military aid to Ukraine. As Ukraine’s battlefield progress remains limited and the political landscape in the US evolves, the fate of the aid and the prospects for peace talks in 2024 remain uncertain.