The ‘friends to all, enemies to none’ strategy is facing its final days as the United States and China continue to exert pressure on island nations like Papua New Guinea to choose sides. Papua New Guinea, located between Asia and Oceania, has a history of being ruled by various colonial powers, including the Dutch Empire, Spanish Empire, German Empire, Empire of Japan, and the British Empire. Even after gaining independence from Australia in 1975, the legacy of colonial rule continues to impact the country. Today, half of the island is still controlled by Indonesia and is a source of unrest and insurgency.
The strategic and military importance of Papua New Guinea is evident through its fluctuating overlords throughout history. Whoever dominates the island has direct access to Australia, the Pacific, and Asia itself. During World War II, the island became a gruesome front in the Pacific War, ultimately falling under the control of the Anglosphere. As a result, Papua New Guinea has become a dependent of Australia, relying on aid and humanitarian assistance. Despite centuries of colonial dominion and being a black Melanesian country, the island remains one of the world’s poorer nations and is in desperate need of infrastructure development.
In an effort to address its developmental needs, Papua New Guinea has adopted a foreign policy of being ‘friends to all, enemies to none.’ This approach aims to maximize opportunities for development and preserve the country’s strategic autonomy. China, recognizing Papua New Guinea’s potential as a post-colonial, Global South country, has taken an interest in the island nation. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested in building airports, highways, sea ports, and telecommunications infrastructure in Papua New Guinea. Port Moresby, the capital, sees China as a critical economic partner for its infrastructure and development.
However, the United States has different intentions and seeks to transform Papua New Guinea into a military outpost to contain China. Recently, the US secured a Defense Cooperation Agreement with Papua New Guinea, granting US access to its bases. While Papua New Guinea denies that this move is specifically targeting China and does not rule out cooperation with Beijing in the security sphere, it highlights the country’s vulnerable position and historical subservience to the West. Papua New Guinea must navigate a delicate balancing act.
In response, China is likely to increase its engagement with Papua New Guinea. The Bank of China is already working to establish a presence in the country. This competition for influence in Papua New Guinea coincides with China’s successes in its relationship with the Solomon Islands, which switched allegiance from Taiwan to China in 2019. These developments demonstrate that the Pacific region has become a ‘cold war’ theater between China and the US, with support from Australia.
However, island nations like Papua New Guinea do not want to take sides. They are tired of being at the mercy of powerful nations. The challenge for Papua New Guinea is to strengthen itself while avoiding subservience. It is fighting to maintain its ‘friends to all, enemies to none’ approach amid rising tensions and demands from both powers to choose sides. If worst-case scenarios can be avoided and investment in the country accelerates from all sides, competition between China and the US could ultimately benefit Papua New Guinea and other island nations, giving them more autonomy and the ability to shape their own future.
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