China is taking steps to expand its farmlands in order to secure its domestic food supply and reduce reliance on foreign imports. According to the China Daily, China is facing challenges in ensuring food security due to its rapidly aging rural population, which has led to a decline in the number of farmers and increased dependence on imported produce. The country’s massive population, which exceeds 1.4 billion people, results in astronomical food demands that continue to grow as the population and development increase.
However, China’s push for more farming also has a geopolitical dimension. The use of the term “food security” suggests that Beijing is aware of the strategic risk posed by its growing reliance on foreign food imports, particularly from the United States. It is possible that China is preparing contingency plans for a potential war with the US and, therefore, needs to reduce its dependency on food imports, which can be cut off in the event of a maritime embargo.
Placing a maritime embargo on a nation can be a rapid way to defeat it in a war if geography allows for it. By cutting off critical import and export routes, a country can be locked into a war of attrition as its resources dwindle. The British Empire used this strategy against Germany in both World War I and II, effectively encircling and strategically encumbering Germany by closing its commercial access to the Atlantic. Without access to critical resources such as oil and enough food supply, Germany was unable to win protracted wars. The US strategy against China aims to economically strangle Beijing with a maritime embargo, including cutting it off from critical imports like food.
To address these war plans and reduce strategic vulnerability, China has implemented the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), establishing multiple logistical routes across Eurasia. However, given the size of China’s population and its high food demand, it cannot compromise on reducing its reliance on US imports, such as soybeans. In addition to the BRI, China is also promoting a doctrine of self-reliance, described as “dual circulation” by President Xi Jinping. This doctrine encompasses not only microchip production but also farming and food.
China’s new economic outlook is a response to the end of globalization and the US’s strategy of tearing it up. China’s primary goal now is to rely on its own markets and resources to sustain economic growth. The US has pursued a commercial relationship with China based on exploitation, demanding that China buy American agricultural products while seeking to cripple China’s semiconductor and high-tech industries. Therefore, China’s efforts to strengthen its farming sector have both military and strategic dimensions: to prevent a lack of supplies from becoming a liability in an embargo situation and to reduce dependency on the US market.
However, China’s push for self-reliance in farming also carries risks. The country’s previous attempt to increase rice production on a massive scale, known as The Great Leap Forward, resulted in one of the greatest famines in human history and millions of deaths. China’s current push for self-reliance must be more carefully considered and aligned with market dynamics.
In conclusion, China’s expansion of farmlands reflects its desire to secure a domestic food supply, decrease reliance on foreign imports, and reduce vulnerability to potential embargoes. This move has both military and strategic implications, as China aims to protect itself from supply chain disruptions in the event of a war. However, China must proceed cautiously to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and ensure that its farming efforts are market-oriented and sustainable.
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