Former Finnish prime minister and presidential hopeful Alexander Stubb believes that resolving the Ukraine conflict will require significant pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to come to the negotiation table. In an interview with Spanish newspaper 20minutos, Stubb stated that there is no short-term solution in sight for the conflict and that it is a long war. He placed the blame on Moscow, particularly Russian President Vladimir Putin, for the lack of progress in finding a diplomatic solution.
Stubb argued that the conflict is too big for Putin to lose, which is why negotiations have not been successful thus far. He suggested that third parties, such as China and major powers from the global East and South, need to apply pressure on Moscow to bring them to the negotiating table. Stubb emphasized that Putin cannot afford to lose this war, so external pressure is crucial.
Furthermore, Stubb pointed out that if such pressure were applied to Russia, the United States and Brussels would also have to convince Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to engage in talks. He emphasized that pressure is needed on both sides for negotiations to become possible.
While Moscow has expressed its readiness for negotiations throughout the conflict, Russian officials have stated that the lack of desire to engage in diplomacy from Kiev and its Western backers has forced them to resort to military means to achieve their goals. On the other hand, Ukraine has consistently rejected any prospect of talking to Russia. Zelensky has even legally banned himself from negotiating with Moscow.
This week, Mikhail Podoliak, a top aide to Zelensky, reiterated Ukraine’s position by stating that negotiating with Russia is out of the question until there are significant tactical defeats on the battlefield. He argued that Moscow needs to have a more realistic assessment of the situation before any talks can begin.
In conclusion, Stubb believes that resolving the Ukraine conflict requires substantial pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to initiate negotiations. He argues that the conflict is too significant for Putin to back down, making the battlefield the likely place for the conflict to be resolved. However, he emphasizes that external powers, such as China, need to exert pressure on Russia to bring them to the negotiating table. Only then can the US and Brussels convince Zelensky to engage in talks. Both sides need to feel the pressure for negotiations to become a possibility.
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