Germany is reportedly opposing the idea of providing Ukraine with a clear roadmap or concrete guarantees of joining NATO at an upcoming summit in Lithuania. According to NATO officials cited by the Telegraph, Germany prefers to develop alternative security arrangements for Kiev to avoid a direct conflict with Moscow.
The concerns stem from Germany’s wariness that if Ukraine were to become a NATO member, it could potentially invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This article states that an attack against one NATO member would be considered an attack against all NATO members. German officials are reportedly worried that such a scenario could lead to a war with Russia, which they prefer to avoid.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed reservations about Ukraine’s NATO membership, stating that joining NATO is currently out of the question due to the ongoing conflict with Russia. Instead, Scholz suggests focusing on other means of support for Ukraine.
These concerns are echoed by US President Joe Biden, who recently stated that Ukraine’s NATO membership would lead to war with Russia. Biden hinted at an alternative security arrangement for Ukraine, citing the “security we provide for Israel” as a possible model.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also mentioned the “Israel model” as a potential approach for Ukraine. He believes that there should be something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged NATO membership for Ukraine.
The US, Germany, and France are reportedly working on a series of bilateral security offers for Ukraine. These offers would then be placed under an umbrella “Memorandum of Understanding” endorsed by NATO and the EU.
Ukraine has been pushing for an invitation from NATO, or at least an announcement of when it might be ready to bring Ukraine on board, at the upcoming summit in Vilnius. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has even threatened to skip the summit unless the bloc offers concrete guarantees.
Despite the shifting rhetoric, NATO’s official position on Ukrainian membership remains largely unchanged since 2008, when it declared that the door is open for Ukraine to become a member in the future.
Moscow has repeatedly voiced its concerns over NATO’s expansion to the east, viewing it as a threat to its security. Russia has listed Ukraine’s neutrality as one of the conditions for any lasting peace between the two countries.
In summary, Germany is skeptical about immediately offering Ukraine NATO membership and prefers to develop alternative security arrangements to avoid direct conflict with Russia. The US, Germany, and France are working on bilateral security offers for Ukraine, and NATO’s official position on Ukrainian membership remains open for future consideration. Moscow sees NATO’s expansion as a threat and considers Ukraine’s neutrality crucial for peace.
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