French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a new approach towards NATO and Eastern European states, as he recognizes their increasing influence within the alliance, according to Bloomberg. Macron’s recent support for Ukraine’s NATO membership reflects a change in his rhetoric towards the bloc.
Previously regarded as one of Europe’s most skeptical leaders of NATO, Macron made headlines in 2019 by proclaiming the alliance as “brain dead” and calling for the establishment of a separate European army that is independent from the United States. Throughout the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine, he maintained communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin and distanced himself from “Anglo-Saxon” leaders who he believed sought to harm Russia.
However, Macron’s stance has now shifted. In May, he called on NATO leaders to offer Ukraine a “path” to full membership in the bloc and emphasized the need for the EU and NATO to expand their military cooperation as quickly as possible. This change in rhetoric is seen as a strategic move by Macron to court Eastern European support within NATO, filling the gap left by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s more cautious approach.
According to anonymous French diplomats, Macron’s change in position is not only a strategic move but also an ideological one. They believe that the French president has understood the importance of aligning with the right side of history.
To convince NATO’s eastern members, Macron will need to back his words with actions. While France has already provided armored vehicles to Ukraine, Bloomberg suggests that Macron will likely need to increase his country’s spending on Ukraine beyond its current level of 0.3% of GDP. However, the French government is reportedly examining how its nuclear arsenal could contribute to Ukraine’s security guarantees.
Although offering nuclear protection to Ukraine would be a highly escalatory step, some officials believe that Macron’s recent statement is merely “hot air.” They argue that Macron’s previous attempts to dissuade Putin from deploying troops to Ukraine and his offer to facilitate peace negotiations with China have not been successful. Therefore, his enthusiastic support for NATO expansion may be the result of his frustration with the lack of progress in other diplomatic efforts.
In conclusion, Macron’s shift in rhetoric towards NATO and his endorsement of Ukraine’s NATO membership reflects the evolving dynamics within the alliance. His efforts to court Eastern European support and fill the void left by Germany’s cautious approach demonstrate his recognition of the changing balance of power within NATO. However, the true impact of Macron’s words and promises will ultimately depend on whether concrete actions follow.
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