If the US presidential election were held today, current President Joe Biden would likely lose to his Republican rival and former President Donald Trump, according to recent polls from the New York Times/Siena College and CBS/YouGov. These polls indicate that Trump is leading significantly in five of the six critical swing states, with an 11-point lead in Nevada and smaller margins in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Only Wisconsin shows a slight favorability toward Biden, with a two-point margin.
The polls also reveal that a majority of respondents believe that the US is moving in the wrong direction under Biden’s leadership. Across all demographics, a majority of respondents claim that Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. Additionally, a significant number of respondents, 71%, think that Biden is too old to serve effectively as president, including more than half of his own supporters. Furthermore, 62% of respondents believe that Biden lacks the mental acuity required for the job.
One of the key factors impacting these poll results is the economy. 59% of likely voters trust Trump over Biden when it comes to the economy, which is considered the most important issue for the upcoming 2024 election. This preference for Trump holds true across all education and income levels, ages, and genders. Only 2% of respondents, and less than 1% of those under 30, believe that the economy is “excellent.” This can potentially explain Biden’s declining support among young voters, who heavily favored him in the 2020 election but only have a one-point preference for him over Trump in the current poll.
The CBS poll further supports the view that voters are placing their economic hopes on the Republican side. In this poll, Trump is ahead of Biden by three points. Nearly half of those polled (45%) believe that they would be better off financially if Trump were back in the White House, while only 18% predict a positive economic future under Biden. However, a majority of respondents (51%) believe that both candidates’ policies would favor the wealthy over the working and middle classes. When it comes to the financial outcomes of a potential second term for either candidate, 48% expect to be financially worse off if Biden wins, while 32% feel the same about Trump.
Beyond the economy, Trump is also perceived as less belligerent when it comes to foreign policy. 47% of respondents believe that Trump would increase peace and stability in the world, compared to only 31% who have the same view of Biden. While 39% believe that Trump would increase the likelihood of the US entering another war, a larger percentage, 49%, expect Biden to do so.
Interestingly, the majority of respondents (72%) prefer that the US stays out of other countries’ affairs, emphasizing a desire to avoid foreign wars. Only 35% prioritize the projection of military power as a foreign policy goal for the promotion of American ideals. However, a slim majority of respondents still support sending military aid to both Israel (55%) and Ukraine (53%).
These poll results highlight the current challenges facing President Biden and the potential impact they could have on his future electoral prospects. The dissatisfaction with his policies, concerns about his age and mental acuity, and the preference for Trump on economic and foreign policy matters could lead to a loss for Biden in a potential rematch against Trump in the next presidential election.