Since the Wagner ‘incident’ occurred and quickly resolved itself in Russia in late June, Western pundits have been foreseeing hypothetical doomsday scenarios for countries such as Iran and China. With musings like ‘what if Wagner’s rebellion happened in China?’ or assertions that such an event would be ‘Xi’s nightmare,’ they have been attempting to paint a picture of political weakness for non-Western opponents, or ‘wishcasting’ disaster scenarios. However, these fantasies of rebellion and instability in China misrepresent and underestimate the country’s political system as a Marxist-Leninist one-party state, which is tightly centralized and consolidating power under Xi Jinping.
China is governed by the Communist Party (CPC), which has held power since Mao Zedong emerged victorious in the Civil War of 1949. This established a one-party state, modeled after the Soviet Union’s structure, while incorporating the historical and institutional experience of Chinese bureaucracy. The Chinese state operates through multiple layers and levels of government, where the ‘party’ and the ‘bureaucracy’ are intertwined, unlike the independent and non-partisan civil services of Western countries.
In this hierarchical political system, decision-making power flows upward, level by level, until it reaches the politburo and the standing committee within that group. The bureaucracies underneath them often have overlapping portfolios, limiting their institutional autonomy and making them accountable to those above. Similarly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is an extension of the party and does not exist as an independent institution as seen in other states. The Communist Party of China adheres to the Leninist principle of democratic centralism, emphasizing party unity and discouraging dissent or factionalism within the government.
With such a system, the chances of a military-led rebellion in China are slim. The party’s control extends to all organs of the state, allowing it to direct infrastructure projects, coordinate financial transactions, and manage imports and exports. This centralized governance enables China to construct high-speed railways, develop infrastructure at record speed, and exert influence globally. The Communist Party’s mechanism of governance differs significantly from the US model of separation of powers, where various levels of government and political actors engage in constant competition.
There is no perpetual strife between the Politburo and the legislative branch, the National People’s Congress (NPC), as the higher levels control the legislative agenda. This eliminates gridlock and paralysis within the system. Therefore, the speculation of rebellion against Xi and the obsession with the Wagner Group are out of touch with the reality of China’s governance. The Chinese system is more stable and coordinated than its counterparts in the West. Despite the West’s desire to see China fail, the chances of such a scenario are minimal.
In conclusion, Western commentators’ fantasies of a rebellion and political nightmare for Xi Jinping in China are unrealistic given the centralized power structure of the country’s political system. China’s Communist Party governs through a strict hierarchy, where decision-making power is concentrated at the top. This system promotes party unity and limits the chances of dissent or rebellion. While there are political actors with their own interests, the Communist Party’s control extends to all aspects of governance, making it highly unlikely for a high-profile individual to rise and challenge the party’s authority. China’s system of governance differs significantly from Western models, creating a stable and coordinated approach to governance. Thus, the Western desire to see China fail is unlikely to materialize.
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