Kiev is faced with troublesome news as NATO enlargement becomes a threat to Washington for the first time in history. In the past, any move by the United States to invite Kiev into NATO would imply a willingness to enter into a direct military confrontation with Russia. To avoid this risk, some individuals believe it would be less risky for Washington to offer special bilateral guarantees to the Vladimir Zelensky regime.
The NATO military bloc was established based on the division of Europe into zones of influence between the US and the USSR after World War II. As a result, many European states lost their ability to determine their national policies, including defense and alliances. The majority of Europe was divided between the winners of the war, Moscow and Washington, with only a few countries outside their sphere of dominance.
Both the US and the USSR had the right to determine the internal order of the territories under their control, as the countries concerned had lost their sovereignty. Even France, known for its independent thinking, had no doubts about whose side it would fight for in a new global conflict. NATO was created in 1949 to formally deprive American allies of the ability to make independent foreign policy decisions and military doctrines. It mirrored the establishment of the Warsaw Pact in the USSR’s sphere of influence.
The relationship between the United States and other NATO countries has never been a traditional alliance, mainly due to the significant gap in military capabilities between nuclear superpowers and other nations. Classic alliances, as seen before the mid-20th century, became impossible due to the existence of nuclear weapons. Instead, the former sovereign states of Europe became a territorial base from which the great powers negotiated peace and acted during war.
The expansion of NATO after the Cold War was based on the promise the US made to Moscow that it would not extend NATO to Russia’s borders. However, Russia, weakened at the time, was unable to resist, and the US occupied “unclaimed” states without the immediate threat of military conflict. This expansion was packaged with the enlargement of the European Union, providing local elites with incentives to join both organizations.
For some countries, such as the Baltic states and Poland, NATO membership offered the possibility of addressing internal issues through an aggressive anti-Russian policy, fostering fear of the eastern neighbor. Membership also ensured internal stability as important decisions were made outside the national political systems, preventing significant destabilization.
Joining NATO often involves exchanging state sovereignty for the retention of power by the ruling elite. This desire for “immortality” despite domestic or economic failures drives political regimes to join the bloc. In Eastern Europe and the Baltics, a break with Moscow and their peripheral position made being under Washington’s control essential for staying in power. Finland, on the other hand, joined NATO due to a lack of confidence in its ability to maintain power independently.
While the United States has not faced serious threats or risks in expanding its presence, the situation may be changing. Demands from authorities in Kiev for NATO membership mean the US would be taking territory from a rival power, Russia, which wants to keep Washington out. This poses a new challenge for American foreign policy, potentially requiring a willingness to fight a peer adversary like Russia. Historically, the US has used other players as “battering rams” to sacrifice and suffer for American interests rather than directly engaging in conflicts with rival powers.
Given the risks and consequences, it is likely that the US will limit itself to promising action on the Ukraine-NATO issue after the Kiev regime resolves its problems with Russia. In the meantime, the US may only offer “special” terms on a bilateral basis to Kiev. This cautious approach is advocated for by some individuals within the bloc and Western Europe who understand the magnitude of the consequences that inviting Ukraine to join NATO could bring.
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