Washington’s military presence in Niger is at risk following a recent military coup that saw the ouster of the constitutionally-elected President Mohamed Bazoum. Acting Deputy Secretary of State for the United States, Victoria Nuland, made her third visit to Niger to address the situation. However, her attempts to meet with both Bazoum and the leader of the new military government, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, were denied. Nuland engaged in strained discussions with General Moussa Salaou Barmou, who headed a delegation of lesser officers.
The US is hesitant to label the Nigerien coup as a coup because, under US law, recognizing it as such would require severing all military-to-military interactions and withholding US-funded aid. This law is known as Section 7008 and stipulates that funds appropriated by Congress for State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs cannot be used to finance assistance for any country that undergoes a military coup to remove its duly elected head of government.
During her discussions with the Tchiani government delegation, Nuland emphasized that US relations were currently suspended but not permanently halted. She highlighted the consequences of failing to reinstate President Bazoum, particularly concerning General Barmou, who has had extensive training and interaction with the US military. The US, France, and other European partners have been working together to combat Islamic extremism in the Sahel region of Africa. Niger hosts two major US bases that support intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations conducted by drones and aircraft. These bases are crucial in the fight against Al Qaeda and Islamic State terrorism in the region.
If the US were to sever relations with Niger due to the coup, Western-oriented anti-terrorism efforts would cease, leaving a void that could be filled by Russian influence. The Wagner Group, a private military company allegedly linked to Russian foreign policy objectives, has been reported to provide military security support in several African countries, including Mali, the Central African Republic, and Libya. There have been indications of Wagner officials meeting with members of the Nigerien coup government to discuss security cooperation. Nuland expressed concern about the potential deployment of Wagner into Niger and its impact on African security.
The US is currently faced with a dilemma as it seeks to maintain relations with a country that cannot legally receive US aid due to the coup. Section 7008 does allow for a waiver on national security grounds, but there are obstacles to obtaining such a waiver. The US has invested significant political capital in trying to restore President Bazoum to power, and reversing course now would be a departure from its stance. Additionally, Niger may no longer be interested in maintaining their close relations with the US, following the pattern set by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea in moving away from their post-colonial relationship with France.
Time is ticking for the fate of US-Niger relations, and it appears that little can be done to change the outcome. The US must carefully weigh its options and consider the potential consequences of its decisions in relation to regional security and influence.
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