According to a report from the Washington Post, US intelligence agencies have a pessimistic assessment of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, suggesting that it will fail to achieve its objectives by the end of the year. The report highlights Moscow’s effective defense of captured territory as a major factor in Ukraine’s anticipated failure. The intelligence community believes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, preventing Ukraine from achieving its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.
While Crimea has been under Russian control since 2014, Ukrainian officials have consistently stated their intention to retake the region by force, asserting that it is part of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Melitopol is seen as a significant strategic location in these plans, as it is one of the largest urban centers near the coast of the Azov Sea. Capturing the city would provide a staging area for further attacks on Crimea, which has already been targeted by several Ukrainian strikes this year.
This report from the Washington Post echoes recent revelations from investigative reporter Seymour Hersh. In a story published earlier on Thursday, Hersh quoted an unnamed US intelligence official who bluntly stated that Ukraine “will not win the war.” The official revealed that information about the failure of the Ukrainian offensive had reached US Secretary of State Antony Blinken through the CIA. The official characterized the offensive as a mere show by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, suggesting that some in the US administration saw it as empty rhetoric.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June, with Ukraine deploying its best Western-equipped and trained brigades in an attempt to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. However, the operation has been widely regarded as a failure. Russian estimates suggest that Ukraine has lost over 43,000 troops and nearly 5,000 pieces of heavy equipment in exchange for only a few villages. Ukrainian leadership is now divided on whether to continue the operation or wait until next spring to try again.
President Zelensky has blamed the lack of success on the West, claiming that Ukraine did not receive adequate weapons to penetrate Russian lines. He has called for fighter jets and long-range missiles to support the counteroffensive. Newsweek reported on Wednesday that Ukrainian leadership is split on whether to pursue an all-out effort, risking further losses, or to accept a politically damaging defeat.
The assessment made by US intelligence agencies raises doubts about the feasibility of Ukraine’s current strategy. It suggests that Ukraine’s military forces will be unable to achieve their objectives in the counteroffensive and that the mission will ultimately fail. This poses a significant challenge for Ukrainian leadership, who must now decide on the best course of action moving forward.
Source link
